Developing an attribution system based on seasonal and medium-range forecasts

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Extreme event attribution aims to quantitatively and qualitatively estimate the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. Recent studies have turned to medium-range forecasts to examine weather events of smaller and shorter scales such as mid-latitude cyclones. These dynamic events are challenging to forecast more than a week in advance and forecasters hence rely on predictive skill in initial conditions. This project aims to develop a methodology to create realistic initial conditions for past and future climate simulations. Success in this field will improve adaptation measures to extreme weather as well as inform loss and damage discussions. This project has CASE support from the UK Met Office.