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Using Antarctica's response in the mid-Pliocene warm period to understand uncertainties about long-term future sea level rise

利用南极洲在上新世中期温暖期的反应来了解未来长期海平面上升的不确定性

基本信息

批准号：
2708792
负责人：
金额：
--
依托单位：
King's College London
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Studentship
财政年份：
2022
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2022 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2708792
关键词：
Using Antarctica response mid Pliocene

项目摘要

Sea level rise represents an existential threat to coastal populations and ecosystems. The response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change is the highest uncertainty in future sea level projections. The primary vehicle for studying these uncertainties is through the use of ice sheet models to simulate ice sheet evolution under different emission scenarios. However, the majority of modelling efforts to date have focused on end of the century projections. Models that have run multi-millennial simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet all either compromise on model complexity or use a grid resolution that is too coarse to robustly model grounding line retreat. This project will conduct millennial-scale simulations of future Antarctic ice sheet evolution using the BISICLES ice sheet model, which uses Adaptive Mesh Refinement to improve resolution at the grounding line. Until recently, BISICLES was incapable of conducting multi-millennial simulations due to lacking the solid Earth processes that become relevant on these timescales. This project will expand on previous work, which added these processes to BISICLES and used it to simulate Antarctic ice sheet evolution during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. It will use information from the Pliocene to put constraints on future sea level rise. It will then emulate BISICLES using a statistical model to explore the uncertainties in future sea level projections in more depth, producing full probabilitydistributions for sea level by 2300 and after multiple millennia.

海平面上升对沿海人口和生态系统构成了生存威胁。在未来海平面预测中，南极冰盖对气候变化的反应是最不确定的。研究这些不确定性的主要手段是通过使用冰盖模式来模拟不同排放情景下的冰盖演变。然而，迄今为止，大多数模拟工作都集中在本世纪末的预测上。对南极冰盖进行了数千年模拟的模式要么降低了模式的复杂性，要么使用了过于粗糙的网格分辨率，无法可靠地模拟接地线退缩。该项目将使用BISICLES冰盖模型对未来南极冰盖演变进行千年尺度的模拟，该模型使用自适应网格细化来提高接地线的分辨率。直到最近，由于缺乏与这些时间尺度相关的固体地球过程，BISICLES无法进行数千年的模拟。该项目将扩展之前的工作，将这些过程添加到BISICLES中，并使用它来模拟上新世中期温暖期的南极冰盖演变。它将利用上新世的信息来限制未来海平面的上升。然后，它将使用一个统计模型来模拟BISICLES，以更深入地探索未来海平面预测的不确定性，得出2300年和几千年后海平面的完整概率分布。