Vulnerability to natural hazards of green economy assets and systems

近年来，推动绿色经济（即提高人类福祉和社会公平，同时显著减少环境风险和生态稀缺性的经济）的力度有所加大。在物质基础设施方面，可再生能源、绿色建筑和可持续交通部门的增长。这些出现了新的资产类型，需要对自然灾害进行保险，而人们对它们知之甚少。例如，已知光伏板的微裂纹会阻碍太阳能的生产，并且可能由许多危害（例如冰雹、强风）引起，但尚未有研究量化这种可能性，而且观测数据也很少。该项目的目的是使用混合方法为绿色经济的关键组成部分开发脆弱性和脆弱性模型。在项目的第一阶段，将通过文献综述并与AXA协商确定与绿色经济相关的具体系统。然后，我们将开发一套脆弱性和脆弱性函数，描述资产遭受不同自然灾害时对资产及其内容造成损害的可能性、直接经济损失和业务中断。由于绿色经济资产在自然灾害下表现的观测数据缺乏，脆弱性函数的开发将探索多种方法。这些方法包括基于专家意见（库克方法）的方法和基于不同风险下资产数值模拟的方法。此外，将开发将专家意见或数值函数与可用索赔数据相结合的混合脆弱性函数（为此目的，AXA将提供索赔数据）。为了确定业务中断的特征，将与确定的绿色经济资产的主要供应商进行面谈，并分析系统性能和恢复时间。该项目将以这种方式在方法上取得最新进展，并为以前未建模的资产产生脆弱性和脆弱性函数。该学生（Harikesan Baskaran）具有机械工程和国际开发背景，并具有一些灾变建模的基本经验，非常适合该项目。学生将在安盛的办公场所度过一段时间，并将接触安盛正在进行的与自然灾害风险相关的项目。这种曝光将确保已开发的研究成果以AXA可用的形式呈现。

In recent years the push towards a green economy (i.e. one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities) has increased. In terms of physical infrastructure, this has seen the growth of the renewable energy, green construction and sustainable transportation sectors. These present new asset types that will need to be insured against natural hazards and for which little is known. For example, micro-cracking of photovoltaic panels is known to hamper the production of solar energy, and can be caused by a number of hazards (e.g. hail, strong wind) but no study has yet quantified the likelihood of this, and observational data is scarce. The aim of this project is to develop fragility and vulnerability models for key components of the green economy using mixed methods.In the first stage of the project a specific system pertaining to the green economy will be identified from a literature review and in consultation with AXA. We will then develop a set of fragility and vulnerability functions characterizing the likelihood of damage to the asset and any contents, direct economic loss and business interruption when the asset is subjected to different natural hazards.Due to the scarcity of observational data on the performance of green economy assets under natural hazards, a number of approaches will be explored for the vulnerability function development. These will include expert-opinion (Cooke's method) based methods and methods based on the numerical simulation of the asset under different hazards. Moreover, hybrid vulnerability functions that combine the expert-opinion or numerical functions with available claims data will be developed (claims data will be made available by AXA for this purpose). To characterize business interruption, interviews will be conducted with key providers of the green economy assets identified, and both system performance and restoration time will be analysed. The project will in this way develop methodological advances on the state of art, as well as produce fragility and vulnerability functions for assets not modelled before. The student (Harikesan Baskaran) is perfectly suited to the project with a mechanical engineering and international development background, and some basic experience in catastrophe modelling. The student will spend time at the AXA premises and will be exposed to projects AXA are working on that are relevant to natural hazard risk. This exposure will ensure that developed research outcomes are presented in a form useable by AXA.