Vulnerability to natural hazards of green economy assets and systems

绿色经济资产和系统对自然灾害的脆弱性

• 批准号: 2728857
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Studentship
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=studentship-2728857
• 关键词: Vulnerability; natural; hazards; green; economy

In recent years the push towards a green economy (i.e. one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities) has increased. In terms of physical infrastructure, this has seen the growth of the renewable energy, green construction and sustainable transportation sectors. These present new asset types that will need to be insured against natural hazards and for which little is known. For example, micro-cracking of photovoltaic panels is known to hamper the production of solar energy, and can be caused by a number of hazards (e.g. hail, strong wind) but no study has yet quantified the likelihood of this, and observational data is scarce. The aim of this project is to develop fragility and vulnerability models for key components of the green economy using mixed methods.In the first stage of the project a specific system pertaining to the green economy will be identified from a literature review and in consultation with AXA. We will then develop a set of fragility and vulnerability functions characterizing the likelihood of damage to the asset and any contents, direct economic loss and business interruption when the asset is subjected to different natural hazards.Due to the scarcity of observational data on the performance of green economy assets under natural hazards, a number of approaches will be explored for the vulnerability function development. These will include expert-opinion (Cooke's method) based methods and methods based on the numerical simulation of the asset under different hazards. Moreover, hybrid vulnerability functions that combine the expert-opinion or numerical functions with available claims data will be developed (claims data will be made available by AXA for this purpose). To characterize business interruption, interviews will be conducted with key providers of the green economy assets identified, and both system performance and restoration time will be analysed. The project will in this way develop methodological advances on the state of art, as well as produce fragility and vulnerability functions for assets not modelled before. The student (Harikesan Baskaran) is perfectly suited to the project with a mechanical engineering and international development background, and some basic experience in catastrophe modelling. The student will spend time at the AXA premises and will be exposed to projects AXA are working on that are relevant to natural hazard risk. This exposure will ensure that developed research outcomes are presented in a form useable by AXA.

近年来，人们越来越大力推动绿色经济（即能够改善人类福祉和社会公平，同时显着降低环境风险和生态稀缺的经济）。在实体基础设施方面，可再生能源、绿色建筑和可持续交通部门的增长。这些新的资产类型需要针对自然灾害投保，但对此我们知之甚少。例如，众所周知，光伏板的微裂纹会阻碍太阳能的生产，并且可能是由许多危害（例如冰雹、强风）引起的，但尚未有研究量化这种可能性，而且观测数据也很少。该项目的目的是使用混合方法开发绿色经济关键组成部分的脆弱性和脆弱性模型。在该项目的第一阶段，将通过文献综述并与 AXA 协商确定与绿色经济相关的特定系统。然后，我们将开发一套脆弱性和脆弱性函数，表征当资产遭受不同自然灾害时，资产及其任何内容受损、直接经济损失和业务中断的可能性。由于缺乏自然灾害下绿色经济资产表现的观测数据，因此将探索多种脆弱性函数开发方法。这些将包括基于专家意见（库克方法）的方法和基于资产在不同危险下的数值模拟的方法。此外，将开发将专家意见或数值函数与可用索赔数据相结合的混合脆弱性函数（AXA 将为此目的提供索赔数据）。为了描述业务中断的特征，将与已确定的绿色经济资产的主要提供商进行访谈，并分析系统性能和恢复时间。该项目将以这种方式开发最先进的方法论进步，并为以前未建模的资产产生脆弱性和脆弱性函数。该学生（Harikesan Baskaran）具有机械工程和国际开发背景，并且在灾难建模方面有一些基本经验，非常适合该项目。学生将在 AXA 场所度过一段时间，并将接触 AXA 正在开展的与自然灾害风险相关的项目。这种曝光将确保开发的研究成果以 AXA 可用的形式呈现。