Fitness versus fatness: Disentangling their effects on disease outcomes and estimating the population burden of disease

健康与肥胖：理清它们对疾病结果的影响并估计人口疾病负担

• 批准号: nhmrc : 436866
• 负责人: Prof Andrew Forbes
• 金额: $ 12.57万
• 依托单位: Monash University
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: NHMRC Project Grants
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2007-01-01 至 2008-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://researchdata.edu.au/fitness-versus-fatness-burden-disease/97139
• 关键词: Fitness; versus; fatness; Disentangling; their

Overweight and physical inactivity are two of the major risk factors for cardiovascular disease and diabetes. With increasing population levels of overweight, governments are increasingly advocating public health measures aimed at increasing physical activity levels or otherwise decreasing weight. There has been much research concerning which of these factors is the key prognostic factor for adverse health outcomes, but an ongoing lack of clarity of research findings has led to uncertainty as to the direction of recommendations for preventive health strategies and population lifestyle changes. In addition, the risks of overweight, in particular, have been accused of being exaggerated in both the scientific and lay literature. This is often due to the difficulty of dealing appropriately with time varying confounders which are also intermediate factors (such as hypertension). To date, no studies have performed careful longitudinal modelling of the joint effects of physical inactivity and overweight on cardiovascular events and diabetes while taking into account the effects of factors, such as hypertension or atherosclerosis, that influence both physical activity and overweight as well as disease, and simultaneously are consequences of these risk factors. Standard statistical methods are known to produce biased estimates in these situations but we will apply more recently developed statistical techniques to provide much improved estimation of these effects. After the statistical modelling stage, we will model the burden of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and mortality associated with given levels of overweight and physical inactivity. These will be combined with population levels of overweight and inactivity to identify the fraction of the current and future burden of disease attributable to these risk factors.

超重和缺乏运动是心血管疾病和糖尿病的两个主要危险因素。随着人口超重水平的增加，政府越来越多地倡导旨在增加身体活动水平或以其他方式减轻体重的公共卫生措施。关于这些因素中哪一个是不良健康结果的关键预后因素，已经有很多研究，但由于研究结果一直不明确，导致对预防性健康战略和人口生活方式改变的建议方向存在不确定性。此外，超重的风险，特别是，已被指责被夸大的科学和非专业文献。这通常是由于难以适当处理时变混杂因素，这些混杂因素也是中间因素（如高血压）。到目前为止，没有研究进行了仔细的纵向建模的联合影响的身体活动和超重对心血管事件和糖尿病，同时考虑到的影响因素，如高血压或动脉粥样硬化，影响身体活动和超重以及疾病，同时是这些风险因素的后果。已知标准统计方法在这些情况下会产生有偏估计，但我们将应用最近开发的统计技术来提供对这些影响的更好估计。在统计建模阶段之后，我们将对与特定超重和缺乏身体活动水平相关的糖尿病、心血管疾病和死亡率的负担进行建模。这些将与超重和缺乏活动的人口水平相结合，以确定这些风险因素在当前和未来疾病负担中所占的比例。