The predictors of knee cartilage loss: A 5 year natural history study based on an existing cohort

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Osteoarthritis (OA) is the single biggest cause of disability in Western society. Despite this, relatively little is known about the factors that effect disease progression. This will be the first extended follow up study of cartilage volume in people with early OA. This study will build on our existing work where we have developed a cohort study of adults with early knee OA. These people were initially recruited in 1997-8. An extensive data base of potential risk factors for OA has been collected and both X-rays of the knee and MRI have been performed at baseline and 2 years. Extending the follow up from 2 to 5 years will allow not only more precise estimation of rates of cartilage loss and assessment of risk factors, but also enable assessment of the assumption of linearity of cartilage volume loss. It will also be possible to partition the observed variability in rates of loss into true between-subject variability and within subject residual variability. This partitioning will provide valuable information for the design of future studies in OA, similar to the establishment of statistical design principles for patterns of loss in bone mineral density.