Glacier Calving-observations and Modelling

冰川崩解是指冰川边缘的冰破裂而导致冰损失的过程。冰流模型以许多不同的方式描述产犊，并且仍然没有就最佳方法达成共识。最近的工作表明，产犊可以引起一个不稳定的失控过程和一些高端预测不久的未来全球海平面依赖于模型实现这样一个不稳定的锋面撤退。在这个项目中，观测和数值方法都被用来更好地了解产犊过程和如何最好地实现产犊数字。其目的是达到一个描述，结果与观测结果很好的一致性，而在同一时间是数字强大和灵活，足以适应现有的建模框架中使用的大规模冰盖建模今天。特别令人感兴趣的是，某些类型的产犊律可能引起不稳定的后退。将使用数值冰流模型和简化的分析模型来研究和检验这一想法。观测数据将主要以格陵兰、冰岛和南极洲的遥感数据为基础，另外还将从冰岛湖泊终止冰川收集新的数据集。不久的将来，松岛冰川，南极洲的演变，将模拟使用不同类型的产犊法，和产犊配方的重要性，通过正式的不确定性量化方法进行评估。这项工作将与现有的国际研究项目和目前正在研究类似问题的其他小组紧密结合。学生将受益，并有助于在诺森比亚大学进行的工作作为NSFPLR-NERC资助的项目的一部分：过程，驱动程序，预测：模拟斯韦茨冰川在下一个世纪使用冰/海洋耦合模型的响应。

Glacier calving is the process of ice loss through the breaking of ice from the edge of a glacier. Ice-flow models describe calving in a number of different ways, and there is still no consensus on the best approach. Recent work suggests that calving can give rise to an unstable run-away process and some of the higher-end predictions of near-future global sea level rely on models implementing such an unstable frontal retreat. In this project, both observational and numerical methods are used to better understand the calving process and how best to implement calving numerically. The aim is to arrive at a description that results in good agreement with observations, while at the same time being numerically robust and flexible enough to fit into an existing modelling framework used in large-scale ice-sheet modelling today. Of particular interest is the possibility of some types of calving-laws giving rise to an unstable retreat. This idea will be investigated and tested using numerical ice-flow models and simplified analytical models. Observational data will be primarily based on remote sensing data from Greenland, Iceland and Antarctica with additional new data sets to be collected from lake-terminating glaciers in Iceland. The near-future evolution of Pine-Island glacier, Antarctica, will be modelled using different types of calving laws, and the importance of calving formulations assess through formal uncertainty-quantification methodology. The work will be tightly integrated with existing international research projects and other groups currently working on similar problems. The student will benefit and contribute to work conduced at Northumbria University as a part of the NSFPLR-NERC funded project: Processes, drivers, predictions: Modeling the response of Thwaites Glacier over the next century using ice/ocean coupled models.