Ecosystem disturbance and multiscale transmission of a zoonotic wildlife pathogen

人畜共患野生动物病原体的生态系统扰动和多尺度传播

• 批准号: 7126868
• 负责人: Philip Simon Craig
• 金额: $ 53.51万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF SALFORD
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2000
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2000-09-30 至 2008-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7126868
• 关键词: Asia; Cestoda; agriculture; animal population density; communicable disease transmission; computer simulation; disease /disorder model; disease /disorder proneness /risk; disease reservoirs; dogs; ecosystem; geographic difference; host organism interaction; human data; longitudinal human study; model design /development; socioeconomics; zoonosis

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): A key element in disease emergence/re-emergence is ecosystem disruption as a result of anthropogenic effects which may be rapid as in tropical deforestation or more subtle as in agricultural expansion and overgrazing in temperate biomes. There is however difficulty in developing suitable models to study ecology of infectious diseases, wherein spatial determinants that meaningfully characterize wildlife reservoir habitat, can be linked in turn to host ecology and to dynamics of pathogen/parasite transmission. Using a multidisciplinary approach, grounded on 5 years of collaborative data collected in China from studies on human exposure, transmission ecology, landscape characterization and epidemiology for a pathogenic zoonotic helminth (Echinococcus multilocularis), we aim to develop a general spatio-deterministic model that provides a practical synthesis of host-landscape ecology and transmission models. This approach will be applied study the ecology of transmission of Echinococcus between canids and small mammal reservoir hosts in a geographically defined zone, the Tibetan Plateau (comprising, Sichuan, Qinghai, and Tibet Autonomous Region), and compare wildlife and semi-domestic transmission patterns with that of a geographically separated endemic focus in Central Asia (Xinjiang/Kazahkstan region). A central goal will be to quantify the impact of ecosystem disruption, through livestock over-grazing, socio-economic effects on land-use, and agriculture or deforestation, on the transmission ecology of the parasite, especially in relation to maintenance of enzootic meta-stability at local and regional scales, and to determine relative zoonotic potential. The integrated spatio-deterministic model will be applied at regional scale and tested using simulations that will enable disease (echinococcosis) risk forecasting and development of optimal control/intervention strategies for high risk communities. 2 main hypotheses will be addressed. Firstly, at ecosystem level (the Plateau); parasite transmission may behave as a meta-stable focus despite inherent and peripheral instabilities. Secondly, spatial variables in the form of landscape characteristics can be linked to parasite transmission dynamics using an integrated modeling approach that takes into account multi-level heterogeneity at habitat, host and parasite domains.

描述（由申请人提供）：疾病出现/重新出现的关键要素是由于人为作用而导致的生态系统破坏，这可能是热带森林砍伐的迅速或更微妙的，就像在农业的扩张和温带生物群中过度抓住的那样。但是，很难开发合适的模型来研究传染病的生态学，其中有意义地表征野生动植物储层栖息地的空间决定因素可以依次将其与宿主的生态学和病原体/寄生虫传播的动态联系起来。使用多学科的方法，基于中国的5年协作数据，从人类暴露，传播生态学，景观表征和流行病学研究中，用于致病性人畜共患病（Echinococcus MultiloCularis），我们旨在开发一种普遍的空间确定模型，以提供一般的空间模型，以提供一种实用的传播模型。这种方法将用于研究犬科动物和小型哺乳动物储层之间在地理定义区域，藏族高原（包括，四川，Qinghai和藏西自治区域）中传播的生态学，并与野生动物和半动物的传播模式相比， （新疆/卡扎斯坦地区）。一个核心目标是通过牲畜过度放牧，对土地利用的社会经济影响以及农业或森林矿石对寄生虫的传播生态来量化生态系统破坏的影响，尤其是在维持恩Zootic Meta稳定性方面的传播生态，以确定相对的范围。综合空间确定模型将在区域规模上应用，并使用将启用疾病（棘球发生）风险预测和开发高风险群落的最佳控制/干预策略的模拟进行测试。将解决2个主要假设。首先，在生态系统一级（高原）；尽管固有​​和外围不稳定性，寄生虫的传播仍可能是元稳定的焦点。其次，使用集成的建模方法可以将景观特征形式的空间变量与寄生虫传输动力学联系起来，该方法考虑了人居，宿主和寄生虫域的多级异质性。