The Joint Risks of Hazadous Air Pollulants Among Childhood Cancer Histotypes

描述（由申请人提供）：儿童癌症的病因一直难以捉摸，流行病学研究导致很少的预防策略。最近的报告表明，孕产妇暴露于有害空气污染物（HAPs）为制定预防战略提供了可能。这种潜力特别有希望，因为HAPs与多种癌症组织型之间的联系类似于吸烟与癌症之间的联系。然而，联合或相关风险的程度以及预防的总体潜力仍然未知。贝叶斯层次模型的最新发展为这种潜力的建模提供了强大而新颖的工具。本应用程序的目的是估计和模拟多种儿童癌症的环境风险。中心假设是，母亲暴露于HAPs会导致多种儿童癌症的共同风险。这一假设将通过两个具体目标进行检验，这两个目标得到了德克萨斯州儿童癌症数据库和德克萨斯州州卫生服务部出生记录的初步分析的有力支持。1)针对特定的儿童癌症组织类型，建立可归因于县级HAPs释放的风险模型。这一目标的成果将是县级风险估计，并将作为县级风险评估的功能建模。这一具体目标的结果将有助于针对特定地点和可疑的HAPs进行进一步调查。2)建立点源HAPs释放位点周围儿童癌症风险梯度模型。这个特定的目标将利用贝叶斯层次模型，并将导致释放地点周围风险梯度的估计。这一具体目标的结果将有助于为未来的研究设计点源HAPs释放附近的采样策略。该方法是创新的，因为它利用了最近开发的多元贝叶斯映射和分析技术。拟议的研究意义重大，因为结果将估计多种儿童癌症组织型的共同风险可归因于HAPs释放的程度。这项研究将确定高风险地区和相关的HAPs暴露，这些信息对于阐明HAPs的作用和指导进一步的研究至关重要。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The causes of childhood cancer have been elusive and epidemiologic research has resulted in few prevention strategies. Recent reports implicating maternal exposures to hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) offer potential for prevention strategies. This potential is especially promising because HAPs have been linked to multiple cancer histotypes in a manner analogous to the links between cigarette smoke and cancer. However, the extent of joint or correlated risks and the overall potential for prevention remain unknown. Recent developments in Bayesian hierarchal modeling offer powerful and novel tools for modeling this potential. The objective of this application is to estimate and model environmental risks among multiple childhood cancers. The central hypothesis is that maternal exposures to HAPs present common risks for multiple childhood cancers. This hypothesis will be tested by two specific aims, which are strongly supported by preliminary analysis of the Texas Childhood Cancer Database and birth records from the Texas Department of State Health Services. Specific Aim 1) For specific childhood cancer histotypes, model the risks attributable to county-level HAPs releases. The products of this aim will be county-level risk estimates that will be modeled as functions of county-level HAPs. The results of this Specific Aim will help target specific locations and suspect HAPs for further investigation. Specific Aim 2) Model the gradients of childhood cancer risk around point-source HAPs release-sites. This specific aim will utilize Bayesian hierarchal modeling and will result in the estimation of risk-gradients around the release-sites. The results of this Specific Aim will help design sampling strategies near point-source HAPs releases for future studies. The approach is innovative, because it capitalizes on recently developed multivariate Bayesian mapping and analytical techniques. The proposed research is significant because the results will estimate the extent that common risk to multiple childhood cancer histotypes can be attributed to releases of HAPs. This study will identify the areas of high risk and the associated HAPs exposures, information essential to elucidate the role of HAPs and to guide further study.