Developing a New Risk and Needs Assessment Tool for Young People Who Have Displayed Harmful Sexual Behaviour

儿童和年轻人的性伤害在英国仍然是一个日益严重的问题，儿童慈善机构Barnardo的报告称，仅在2013-2016年间，儿童和年轻人的性伤害就增加了近80%。估计显示，18岁以下的人实施了25%的家庭内虐待，多达三分之一至三分之二的儿童性虐待。由于三分之二表现出有害性行为的年轻人自己也经历过类似的行为，因此必须满足这些儿童的保护和福利需求。风险评估工具经常被用来确定最有可能再次犯罪的人的优先顺序，并帮助指导治疗和干预目标。然而，目前用于评估这一人群的风险和需求的许多工具没有得到充分验证；这些工具是从对成人性犯罪者的研究中开发出来的；并不适用于青少年的所有亚类；或者更令人关切的是，没有准确预测风险。该项目与CASE合作伙伴G-Map Services密切合作，旨在开发一种新的风险和需求评估工具，供表现出有害性行为的年轻人使用。该项目将根据对文献的系统审查，确定有害性行为的已知风险和保护因素，以便制定一种新的编码时间表，从G-Map Services提供的一组案例文件中对这些因素进行编码。识别风险和保护因素可以让从业者了解哪些因素可能会增加或降低青少年犯罪或再犯罪的可能性。为了验证这一工具，该项目将设法通过警察国家计算机获取这一群体的案件档案的追溯性累犯数据，以此作为评估所开发工具预测准确性的一种手段。在这样做时，可以确定该工具的敏感性和特异性，从而避免低估或高估风险，并确保通过提供适当的服务来确定和管理案件。通过与案例合作伙伴的密切合作，这一风险评估工具将在案例合作伙伴提供定制培训的同时，提供给该领域的其他从业人员。因此，该项目将有助于为区域和国家关于性有害行为的政策提供信息。

Sexual harm committed by children and young people remains an increasing problem in the UK, with the children's charity Barnardo's reporting that between 2013-2016 alone, sexual harm committed by children and young people increased by nearly 80%. Estimates show that those under the age of 18 perpetrate 25% of intra-familial abuse and up to a third to two-thirds of all child sexual abuse. With two thirds of young people who display harmful sexual behaviours having experienced similar behaviour themselves, it remains imperative that the safeguarding and welfare needs of these children are being met. Risk assessment tools are frequently utilised to prioritise those most at risk of reoffence and to help guide treatment and intervention goals. However, many tools currently in place for the assessment of risk and need in this population are not fully validated; have been developed from research on adult sexual offenders; are not applicable to all subtypes of adolescents; or more concerningly, do not accurately predict risk. Operating in close partnership with the CASE partner, G-Map Services, this project aims to develop a new risk and needs assessment tool for use with young people who show harmful sexual behaviour. This project will identify known risk and protective factors for harmful sexual behaviours based on a systematic review of the literature, in order to develop a novel coding schedule to code these factors from a cohort of case files provided by G-Map Services. Identifying risk and protective factors can inform practitioners as to what is likely to increase or decrease an adolescent's likelihood of offending or reoffending. In order to validate this tool, this project will seek to access retrospective recidivism data via the police national computer for the case files of this cohort, as a means of assessing the predictive accuracy of the tool developed. In doing so, the sensitivity and specificity of the tool can be established, thereby avoiding the under- or over-estimation of risk and ensuring cases can be identified and managed with appropriate service provision. Through working closely with the CASE partner, this risk assessment tool will be made available for other practitioners in the field, alongside bespoke training provided by the CASE partner. Consequently, this project will help inform both regional and national policy on sexually harmful behaviours.