Developing a New Risk and Needs Assessment Tool for Young People Who Have Displayed Harmful Sexual Behaviour

在英国，儿童和年轻人遭受的性伤害仍然是一个日益严重的问题，儿童慈善机构巴纳多的报告称，仅在2013年至2016年期间，儿童和年轻人遭受的性伤害就增加了近80%。估计表明，18岁以下的人在家庭内部虐待中占25%，在所有儿童性虐待中占三分之一至三分之二。在表现出有害性行为的年轻人中，有三分之二的人自己也经历过类似的行为，因此，必须满足这些儿童的保障和福利需求。风险评估工具经常用于优先考虑那些最有可能再犯的人，并帮助指导治疗和干预目标。然而，目前用于评估这一人群的风险和需求的许多工具尚未得到充分验证；从对成人性犯罪者的研究发展而来；并非适用于所有亚型的青少年；或者更令人担忧的是，不能准确预测风险。该项目与案例合作伙伴G-Map服务公司密切合作，旨在开发一种新的风险和需求评估工具，用于表现出有害性行为的年轻人。本项目将在系统回顾文献的基础上确定已知的有害性行为的风险和保护因素，以便根据G-Map服务公司提供的一系列案例文件制定新的编码时间表，对这些因素进行编码。识别风险和保护因素可以告知从业人员，什么可能增加或减少青少年犯罪或再犯罪的可能性。为了验证这一工具，本项目将设法通过警察国家计算机获取这一群体案件档案的回顾性累犯数据，作为评估所开发工具预测准确性的一种手段。通过这样做，可以确定工具的敏感性和特异性，从而避免对风险的低估或高估，并确保可以通过提供适当的服务来识别和管理病例。通过与CASE合作伙伴的密切合作，这个风险评估工具将提供给该领域的其他从业者，以及CASE合作伙伴提供的定制培训。因此，该项目将有助于为区域和国家关于有害性行为的政策提供信息。

Sexual harm committed by children and young people remains an increasing problem in the UK, with the children's charity Barnardo's reporting that between 2013-2016 alone, sexual harm committed by children and young people increased by nearly 80%. Estimates show that those under the age of 18 perpetrate 25% of intra-familial abuse and up to a third to two-thirds of all child sexual abuse. With two thirds of young people who display harmful sexual behaviours having experienced similar behaviour themselves, it remains imperative that the safeguarding and welfare needs of these children are being met. Risk assessment tools are frequently utilised to prioritise those most at risk of reoffence and to help guide treatment and intervention goals. However, many tools currently in place for the assessment of risk and need in this population are not fully validated; have been developed from research on adult sexual offenders; are not applicable to all subtypes of adolescents; or more concerningly, do not accurately predict risk. Operating in close partnership with the CASE partner, G-Map Services, this project aims to develop a new risk and needs assessment tool for use with young people who show harmful sexual behaviour. This project will identify known risk and protective factors for harmful sexual behaviours based on a systematic review of the literature, in order to develop a novel coding schedule to code these factors from a cohort of case files provided by G-Map Services. Identifying risk and protective factors can inform practitioners as to what is likely to increase or decrease an adolescent's likelihood of offending or reoffending. In order to validate this tool, this project will seek to access retrospective recidivism data via the police national computer for the case files of this cohort, as a means of assessing the predictive accuracy of the tool developed. In doing so, the sensitivity and specificity of the tool can be established, thereby avoiding the under- or over-estimation of risk and ensuring cases can be identified and managed with appropriate service provision. Through working closely with the CASE partner, this risk assessment tool will be made available for other practitioners in the field, alongside bespoke training provided by the CASE partner. Consequently, this project will help inform both regional and national policy on sexually harmful behaviours.