Macroeconomic Demography of Intergenerational Transfers

描述(由申请人提供)：该项目将开发衡量代际转移总额的新方法；在不同的社会、经济和政策背景下构建代际转移的历史估计和预测；分析公共政策、家庭支助系统和经济条件之间的相互关系；以及分析公共政策的宏观经济和代际影响。新的国家转移账户系统将是一个重大进步，因为它既衡量家庭转移，也衡量公共转移，并考虑到其历史和国际范围。这些新数据将被用来研究人口老龄化对家庭和公共转移的影响，家庭支持系统的变化如何影响不同世代的经济状况，公共和家庭转移系统之间的相互作用，以及关于养老金、医疗保健和教育的公共政策变化的宏观经济和代际影响。国际团队来自美国、欧洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲。这些账户将对美国、法国、巴西、智利、日本、台湾和印度尼西亚等七个经济体进行估计，具有足够的历史深度，可以分析公共政策、经济状况和家庭支持系统的长期变化。广阔的历史和跨文化视角将为在几代人之间重新分配资源的替代战略提供重要的新见解。 加州大学伯克利分校的Lee和夏威夷东西中心的Mason提交了具有相同文本的平行提案，将一起审查。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will develop new methods for measuring aggregate intergenerational transfers; construct historical estimates and projections of intergenerational transfers in varying social, economic, and policy contexts; analyze the inter-relationships between public policy, familial support systems, and economic conditions; and analyze the macroeconomic and generational effects of public policy. The new National Transfer Account system will represent a significant advance because it measures both familial and public transfers, and because of its historical and international scope. These new data will be used to study the implications of population aging for both familial and public transfers, how changes in familial support systems are influencing the economic circumstances of different generations, the interaction between public and familial transfer systems, and the macroeconomic and generational effects of changes in public policy with regard to pensions, health care, and education. An international team is drawn from the U.S., Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The accounts will be estimated for seven economies, the U.S., France, Brazil, Chile, Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia, with sufficient historical depth to analyze long-run changes in public policy, economic conditions, and family support systems. The broad historical and cross-cultural perspective will provide important new insights about alternative strategies for redistributing resources across generations. Parallel proposals with identical text, to be reviewed together, have been submitted by Lee at UC Berkeley and Mason at the East West Center in Hawaii.