Macroeconomic Demography of Intergenerational Transfers

项目描述（由申请人提供）：本项目将开发衡量代际转移总量的新方法；在不同的社会、经济和政策背景下构建代际转移的历史估计和预测；分析公共政策、家庭支持系统和经济状况之间的相互关系；并分析公共政策的宏观经济和代际效应。新的国民转移帐户制度将是一项重大进步，因为它既衡量家庭和公共转移，又考虑到它的历史和国际范围。这些新数据将用于研究人口老龄化对家庭和公共转移的影响，家庭支持系统的变化如何影响不同代人的经济环境，公共和家庭转移系统之间的相互作用，以及有关养老金、卫生保健和教育的公共政策变化的宏观经济和代际影响。国际团队来自美国、欧洲、拉丁美洲和亚洲。该报告将对美国、法国、巴西、智利、日本、台湾和印度尼西亚等7个经济体进行评估，并具有足够的历史深度来分析公共政策、经济条件和家庭支持系统的长期变化。广泛的历史和跨文化视角将为跨代资源再分配的替代策略提供重要的新见解。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will develop new methods for measuring aggregate intergenerational transfers; construct historical estimates and projections of intergenerational transfers in varying social, economic, and policy contexts; analyze the inter-relationships between public policy, familial support systems, and economic conditions; and analyze the macroeconomic and generational effects of public policy. The new National Transfer Account system will represent a significant advance because it measures both familial and public transfers, and because of its historical and international scope. These new data will be used to study the implications of population aging for both familial and public transfers, how changes in familial support systems are influencing the economic circumstances of different generations, the interaction between public and familial transfer systems, and the macroeconomic and generational effects of changes in public policy with regard to pensions, health care, and education. An international team is drawn from the U.S., Europe, Latin America, and Asia. The accounts will be estimated for seven economies, the U.S., France, Brazil, Chile, Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia, with sufficient historical depth to analyze long-run changes in public policy, economic conditions, and family support systems. The broad historical and cross-cultural perspective will provide important new insights about alternative strategies for redistributing resources across generations. Parallel proposals with identical text, to be reviewed together, have been submitted by Lee at UC Berkeley and Mason at the East West Center in Hawaii.