Spatial and Temporal Effects in Population Processes

描述（由申请人提供）：该项目的目标是适当的模型和说明的影响的空间和时间的影响，潜在的人口过程及其与新出现的和持续的社会不平等的关系。该项目的动机是，历史上波多黎各的人口和识字率分布不均，伴随着政治和经济的变化，而且在统计上普遍缺乏对空间和时间影响的关注，如果不加以考虑，就会扭曲统计估计，忽视社会和人口进程的重要实质性要素，而这些要素本来可以为社会发展的理论和分析提供信息。我将考察的主要假设是，随着社会的发展，人口规模根据当地的经济基础及其与国家扩张工业的对应关系而不均匀分布，不平等的分布与经济基础有关，但这种关系受人口的制约。该项目的研究结果将为研究人员提供关于不同社会发展阶段的社会经济差异的可靠估计，并为研究涉及空间和时间层面的其他问题提供方法手段。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The objective of this project is to appropriately model and account for the influence of spatial and temporal affects underlying population processes and its relationship with emerging and persistent social inequality. The project is motivated by differential distributions of population and literacy in historic Puerto Rico accompanying political and economic shifts, and the general lack of statistical attention to spatial and temporal effects that, when unaccounted, distort statistical estimates and neglect crucial substantive elements of social and population processes that would otherwise inform theories and analyses of societal development. The main hypotheses I will examine are that, as societies develop, population size is unevenly distributed according to local economic base and its correspondence with national expanding industry, that the distribution of inequality is related to economic base, but this relationship is conditioned by population. The findings from this project will provide researchers with reliable estimates of socioeconomic differentials across stages of societal development and methodological means through which additional questions involving both spatial and temporal dimensions might be addressed.