Spatial and Temporal Effects in Population Processes

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目的目标是适当地模拟和解释潜在人口过程的时空影响及其与新出现和持续的社会不平等的关系。这个项目的动机是历史上波多黎各人口和识字率的不同分布伴随着政治和经济变化，以及统计上普遍缺乏对空间和时间影响的注意，如果不加以考虑，就会扭曲统计估计，并忽视社会和人口过程的关键实质性因素，否则这些因素将为社会发展的理论和分析提供信息。我将检验的主要假设是，随着社会的发展，人口规模根据当地经济基础及其与国家扩张工业的对应关系而分布不均匀，不平等的分布与经济基础有关，但这种关系是由人口决定的。该项目的研究结果将为研究人员提供社会发展阶段社会经济差异的可靠估计和方法手段，通过这些方法可以解决涉及空间和时间维度的其他问题。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The objective of this project is to appropriately model and account for the influence of spatial and temporal affects underlying population processes and its relationship with emerging and persistent social inequality. The project is motivated by differential distributions of population and literacy in historic Puerto Rico accompanying political and economic shifts, and the general lack of statistical attention to spatial and temporal effects that, when unaccounted, distort statistical estimates and neglect crucial substantive elements of social and population processes that would otherwise inform theories and analyses of societal development. The main hypotheses I will examine are that, as societies develop, population size is unevenly distributed according to local economic base and its correspondence with national expanding industry, that the distribution of inequality is related to economic base, but this relationship is conditioned by population. The findings from this project will provide researchers with reliable estimates of socioeconomic differentials across stages of societal development and methodological means through which additional questions involving both spatial and temporal dimensions might be addressed.