Demographic Responses to Natural Resource Changes

SU1MARY项目 该项目将调查以自然资源为基础的环境变化和相关变化 经济影响着人类的迁移模式。了解人类群体如何适应多个 相互关联的系统对于维护健康的社区至关重要。自然环境、经济和人类 美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的系统交叉创造了一个独特的背景，学者们可以在这个背景下进行广泛的研究 关于人类适应环境和随后的经济变化的问题。基于不同的想法 资产的形式对劳动力和企业流动有不同的影响，总体项目目标是调查如何 年，环境和相关的经济变化影响了沿海县的人口迁移模式。 墨西哥湾地区和美国其他地区。 拟议的工作将推进植根于移徙系统理论框架的分析模型。A系统 方法使学者和决策者能够考虑起源和起源之间的背景和关系 目的地，与忽视复杂和交叉结构的以个人为中心的视角形成直接对比 在这个过程中，个人的选择被决定并付诸行动。此外，灾害影响的案例研究方法 通常将人口规模视为一个常量，尽管净移徙和 自然生长。我们的研究将提供关于沿海环境变化和事件的概括性知识 县通过其经济影响对区域内外与移民相关的人口变化做出贡献 以及对自然和资本资产的破坏。该项目将集成多个数据集并开发统计模型以 调查移民对墨西哥湾沿岸国家人口变化的贡献，模拟两者之间的关系 自然资源经济和移民进出沿海县和美国其他县，并测试主张 关于特定环境变化的影响(例如，漏油、飓风、休渔或减少 人口数量)和相关的经济影响人口层面的移徙。 该项目将促进对自然环境之间相互联系的科学理解， 经济、人口系统及其对受影响人口的健康和福祉的影响 社区及其居民。移民直接影响当地人口的规模和构成，这对 对当地医疗保健和公共卫生系统的需求的重大影响：灾害导致的迁出和 它对目的地医疗需求的影响；恢复移民及其对#年医疗服务需求的贡献 受灾害影响的目的地；以及对居住在持续存在疾病的地方的人口的医疗保健提供的影响 灾害导致的经济收缩加剧了人口外流。除了在学术媒体上发表文章外， 团队将使规划者、卫生政策制定者和其他决策者和公众能够获得和访问结果 通过网络研讨会、扩展编程以及新闻稿和专题。该团队还将使关联的 向科学和社区研究人员以及公众免费提供综合数据库。 1

PROJECT SU1MMARY This project will investigate how environmental changes and associated changes in natural resource-based economies impact human migration patterns. Knowledge of how human populations adapt to changes within multiple interconnected systems is critical to maintaining healthy communities. Natural environmental, economic, and human systems intersect in the US Gulf Coast region to create a unique context within which scholars can investigate broad questions about human adaptation to environmental and subsequent economic change. Based on the idea that different forms of assets have different implications for labor and firm mobility, the overarching project goal is to investigate how environmental and associated economic changes impact population-level migration patterns in coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico region and the rest of the United States. The proposed work will advance analytical models rooted in a migration systems theory framework. A systems approach enables scholars and decision-makers to consider the contexts and relationships between origins and destinations, a direct contrast to individual-centered perspectives that neglect the complex and intersecting structures within which individual choices are determined and acted upon. Additionally, case study approaches to disaster impacts often treat population size as a constant, despite long-term demographic trends resulting from net migration and natural growth. Our study will provide generalizable knowledge of how environmental changes and events in coastal counties contribute to migration-related population change within and beyond a region through their economic impacts and damage to natural and capital assets. The project will integrate multiple datasets and develop statistical models to investigate the contribution of migration to population change in Gulf Coast counties, model the relationship between natural resource economies and migration flows from and to coastal counties and other US counties, and test claims about the impact of specific environmental changes (e.g., oil spills, hurricanes, fishing moratoriums or diminished stocks) and associated economic impacts on population-level migration. The project will advance the scientific understanding of the interconnectivity between natural environmental, economic, and population systems, and the associated implications for the health and wellbeing of impacted communities and their inhabitants. Migration directly influences local population size and composition, which has significant implications for demands on local healthcare and public health systems: disaster-induced out-migration and its impact on healthcare demand at destination; recovery migration and its contribution to healthcare service needs in disaster-affected destinations; and implications for healthcare provisions for populations living in places with persistent out-migration exacerbated by disaster-induced economic contractions. In addition to publishing in scholarly outlets, the team will make results available and accessible to planners, health policy-makers, and other decision-makers and publics through webinars, extension programming, and press releases and features. The team will also make the associated integrated database freely available to scientific and community researchers and the public. 1