Demographic Responses to Natural Resource Changes

人口对自然资源变化的反应

• 批准号: 9896598
• 负责人: Katherine J. Curtis
• 金额: $ 9.65万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2019
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2019-09-24 至 2021-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9896598
• 关键词: Affect; Area; Capital; Case Study; Characteristics; Communities; Community Developments; Community Health; Complex; County; Data; Data Set; Databases; Destinations; Disasters; Distant; Economics; Environmental Impact; Event; Family; Fishes; Gases; Goals; Growth; Health; Health Policy; Health system; Healthcare; Household; Human; Hurricane; Individual; Institution; Knowledge; Laboratories; Link; Mexico; Modeling; Natural Resources; Oils; Out-Migrations; Output; Pathway interactions; Pattern; Personal Satisfaction; Plant Roots; Policy Maker; Politics; Population; Population Dynamics; Population Sizes; Precipitation; Press Releases; Public Health; Publishing; Recovery; Recreation; Research; Research Personnel; Research Priority; Rest; Risk; Scientific Advances and Accomplishments; Scientist; Seasons; Services; Shapes; Shock; Site; Social Processes; Statistical Models; Structure; System; Systems Theory; Temperature; Testing; Time trend; Translating; United States; Universities; Weather; Wisconsin; Work; anthropogenesis; base; data archive; economic impact; environmental change; flexibility; gulf coast; health care service; human migration; interest; man made change; migration; neglect; operation; population health; response; sea level rise; social; trend; web site; webinar

PROJECT SU1MMARY This project will investigate how environmental changes and associated changes in natural resource-based economies impact human migration patterns. Knowledge of how human populations adapt to changes within multiple interconnected systems is critical to maintaining healthy communities. Natural environmental, economic, and human systems intersect in the US Gulf Coast region to create a unique context within which scholars can investigate broad questions about human adaptation to environmental and subsequent economic change. Based on the idea that different forms of assets have different implications for labor and firm mobility, the overarching project goal is to investigate how environmental and associated economic changes impact population-level migration patterns in coastal counties in the Gulf of Mexico region and the rest of the United States. The proposed work will advance analytical models rooted in a migration systems theory framework. A systems approach enables scholars and decision-makers to consider the contexts and relationships between origins and destinations, a direct contrast to individual-centered perspectives that neglect the complex and intersecting structures within which individual choices are determined and acted upon. Additionally, case study approaches to disaster impacts often treat population size as a constant, despite long-term demographic trends resulting from net migration and natural growth. Our study will provide generalizable knowledge of how environmental changes and events in coastal counties contribute to migration-related population change within and beyond a region through their economic impacts and damage to natural and capital assets. The project will integrate multiple datasets and develop statistical models to investigate the contribution of migration to population change in Gulf Coast counties, model the relationship between natural resource economies and migration flows from and to coastal counties and other US counties, and test claims about the impact of specific environmental changes (e.g., oil spills, hurricanes, fishing moratoriums or diminished stocks) and associated economic impacts on population-level migration. The project will advance the scientific understanding of the interconnectivity between natural environmental, economic, and population systems, and the associated implications for the health and wellbeing of impacted communities and their inhabitants. Migration directly influences local population size and composition, which has significant implications for demands on local healthcare and public health systems: disaster-induced out-migration and its impact on healthcare demand at destination; recovery migration and its contribution to healthcare service needs in disaster-affected destinations; and implications for healthcare provisions for populations living in places with persistent out-migration exacerbated by disaster-induced economic contractions. In addition to publishing in scholarly outlets, the team will make results available and accessible to planners, health policy-makers, and other decision-makers and publics through webinars, extension programming, and press releases and features. The team will also make the associated integrated database freely available to scientific and community researchers and the public. 1

项目摘要 该项目将调查环境变化以及基于自然资源的相关变化如何 经济影响人类迁徙模式。了解人类如何适应多种变化 互联系统对于维持健康的社区至关重要。自然环境、经济和人文 系统在美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区交叉，创造了一个独特的背景，学者们可以在其中进行广泛的研究 关于人类适应环境和随后的经济变化的问题。基于不同的想法 资产形式对劳动力和企业流动性有不同的影响，项目的总体目标是研究如何 环境和相关经济变化影响沿海国家的人口迁移模式 墨西哥湾地区和美国其他地区。 拟议的工作将推进植根于迁移系统理论框架的分析模型。一个系统 这种方法使学者和决策者能够考虑起源和起源之间的背景和关系。 目的地，与忽视复杂和交叉结构的以个人为中心的观点形成直接对比 在其中确定个人选择并采取行动。此外，灾害影响的案例研究方法 尽管净移民和人口流动导致了长期人口趋势，但通常将人口规模视为常数 自然生长。我们的研究将提供关于沿海环境变化和事件如何发生的普遍知识 各县通过其经济影响促进区域内外与移民相关的人口变化 以及对自然和资本资产的损害。该项目将整合多个数据集并开发统计模型 研究移民对墨西哥湾沿岸县人口变化的贡献，建立模型 自然资源经济和往返于沿海县和美国其他县的移民流量，以及测试声明 关于特定环境变化的影响（例如石油泄漏、飓风、休渔或减少） 存量）以及对人口迁移的相关经济影响。 该项目将促进对自然环境、 经济和人口系统，以及对受影响人群的健康和福祉的相关影响 社区及其居民。移民直接影响当地人口规模和构成， 对当地医疗保健和公共卫生系统的需求产生重大影响：灾害引起的人口外迁和 对目的地医疗保健需求的影响；恢复性移民及其对医疗保健服务需求的贡献 受灾害影响的目的地；以及对生活在持续存在的地区的人口的医疗保健提供的影响 灾害引起的经济收缩加剧了人口外流。除了在学术媒体上发表论文外， 团队将向规划者、卫生政策制定者以及其他决策者和公众提供结果 通过网络研讨会、扩展编程以及新闻稿和专题。该团队还将制作相关 综合数据库免费提供给科学和社区研究人员以及公众。 1