Determining favourable conservation status for the UK's birds: creating population targets to conserve biodiversity

背景资料：在当前的生物多样性和气候变化危机中保护物种需要为受保护物种设定种群目标，以便采取行动确保和保持健康的种群。没有普遍接受的方法来实现这一点，这是一个主要问题，因为有利的保护状态（FCS）是一个越来越多地写入环境立法的概念，也是全球评估的要求，例如世界自然保护联盟最近制定的绿色状态指标。因此，迫切需要评估种群数量是否足够大，以允许长期持续和恢复（https：//www.naturepositive.org/）.目的和目标：本奖学金的主要目标是：（1）将物种密度与栖息地及其景观环境联系起来;（2）估计当前，未来和无人类景观中的种群规模;（3）利用变化中的和潜在的种群规模信息，探索评估FCS的方法;（4）利用英国各地栖息地潜在承载能力的信息，确定保护管理的区域;以及（5）探讨不同基准指标和未来气候对不同情景下物种保护状况的影响。方法：我们将利用国家和国际鸟类普查信息来补充已经整理的鸟类密度信息，不同气候、生境和土地管理情景下的鸟类密度。根据这些信息，我们将估计在过去和当前气候条件下英国各地物种的种群规模。成功的办法将适用于未来和无人情况，前者使用基于未来气候和土地覆盖预测的物种分布模型，后者使用无人情况景观预测。我们将使用不同情景下的种群估计信息来评估哪些物种处于有利或不利的保护状态。对于目前和/或未来景观中处于不利保护状态的物种，我们将探索土地利用变化的情景和地点，以改善其保护状态。最初的重点将是单个物种，但也有可能优化解决方案，以最大限度地提高许多物种的利益。最后，与我们的案例合作伙伴，自然英格兰，我们将探讨我们的工作如何可以通知FCS在英国的指数，以及探索他们的潜在更广泛的使用指数，如世界自然保护联盟绿色状态指数。物种分布模型的预测也将有助于制定未来在FCS维持物种的方法的解决方案。知识和实践意义：本项目将在几个方面开辟新的学术领域。它将提供气候和土地利用变化情景下物种潜在变化丰度的详细了解，背景是英国生物多样性在没有人类的情况下会如何。它将利用最新的物种密度数据集和最近对未来气候和土地利用变化的相关预测，提供有关物种客观种群目标的信息，同时与英国主要政府和非政府保护组织密切合作。

Background: The conservation of species in the current biodiversity and climate change crises requires the setting of population targets for species of conservation concern, in order that actions can be taken to ensure and retain healthy populations. There is no universally accepted methodology to achieve this, which is a major problem, as favourable conservation status (FCS) is a concept increasingly written into environmental legislation and is also required in global assessments, such as the IUCN's recently developed Green Status metric. Hence, there is an urgent need to evaluate whether populations are large enough to allow long-term persistence and recovery (https://www.naturepositive.org/).Aims and Objectives: The primary objectives of this studentship are to: (1) relate species' densities to habitats and their landscape context; (2) estimate population sizes in current, future and human-free landscapes; (3) use changing and potential population size information to explore approaches to evaluate FCS; (4) use information on potential carrying capacities of habitats across the UK to identify areas for conservation management; and, (5) explore the impacts of different baseline metrics, and of future climate, on the perceived conservation status of species under different scenarios.Methodology: We will augment already collated bird density information with national and international bird census information to produce a more detailed understanding of bird densities in different climate, habitat and land management scenarios. From this information, we will estimate population sizes for species across the UK under past and current climate conditions. Successful approaches will be applied to future and human-free scenarios, the former using species distribution modelling based on future climate and land-cover projections, and the latter using human-free landscape projections. We will use information on population estimates under different scenarios to evaluate which species are in favourable versus unfavourable conservation status. For species in unfavourable conservation status in the current and/or future landscapes, we will explore scenarios and sites of land-use change that would improve their conservation status. The initial focus will be on individual species but there is also the potential to optimise solutions to maximise benefits for many species. Finally, working with our Case partner, Natural England, we will explore how our work can inform indices of FCS in the UK as well as exploring their potential wider use in indices such as the IUCN Green Status index. Projections from species distribution models will also help formulate solutions regarding approaches to maintain species at FCS in the future. Intellectual and Practical Significance: This project will break new academic ground in several ways. It will provide a detailed understanding of potential changing abundances of species under climate and land-use change scenarios, against a backdrop of how UK biodiversity would look in the absence of humans. It will take advantage of newly available species density datasets and recent linked projections of future climate and land use changes to provide information on objective population targets for species, whilst working closely with the UK's major government and non-governmental conservation organisations.