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Meta-analysis of Risk for School Failure

学业失败风险的荟萃分析

基本信息

批准号：
7175427
负责人：
SANDRA J WILSON
金额：
$ 18.79万
依托单位：
VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2005-05-01 至 2009-02-28
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): School failure and related problems are not only adverse events in their own right for the children who experience them, but are also related to a broad range of subsequent negative adolescent and adult outcomes. This circumstance makes it especially important to identify and understand the risk factors that predict school failure for purposes of selecting and diagnosing children in need of remedial services, designing preventive programs to offset risk factors and enhance protective ones, and guiding research on the causal processes that produce poor school outcomes. Research relevant to this issue includes a large number of longitudinal studies in which school outcomes and antecedent risk/protective variables are measured. However, no review paper, conceptual model, or systematic synthesis has yet drawn on the full depth and breadth of this research literature to compile, organize, and analyze the empirical relationships it reports. The overall aim of this project is to conduct a systematic synthesis of this body of research using advanced meta-analysis technique in order to address the following issues: 1. The capability of risk and protective variables observed during different age periods to predict school success or failure at later ages. The predictive ability of these variables will be examined in terms of the overall strength of association (product-moment correlation) and in terms of predictive accuracy (e.g., sensitivity and specificity). 2. The combinations of risk and protective variables that tend to co-occur during different age periods and the strength of their collective predictive ability when combined in multivariate factors. Particular attention will be paid to the convergence of empirical data with theoretical formulations about associations between risk/protective factors and school outcomes. 3. The extent of the co-occurrence (comorbidity) of school failure with other problem behaviors such as externalizing and internalizing behaviors and substance use at various age periods. 4. The differences in predictive relationships between risk/protective variables and school success/failure associated with the age, gender, and ethnicity of the students.

描述（由申请人提供）：学业失败和相关问题不仅本身对经历这些问题的儿童来说是不利事件，而且还与随后的一系列负面青少年和成人结果有关。在这种情况下，识别和理解预测学业失败的风险因素尤为重要，以便选择和诊断需要补救服务的儿童，设计预防计划以抵消风险因素并加强保护性计划，并指导对导致学业成绩不佳的因果过程进行研究。与这个问题相关的研究包括大量的纵向研究，其中测量了学校成绩和先前的风险/保护变量。然而，还没有评论论文、概念模型或系统综合充分利用这些研究文献的深度和广度来编译、组织和分析其报告的实证关系。该项目的总体目标是利用先进的荟萃分析技术对这一研究主体进行系统综合，以解决以下问题： 1. 在不同年龄阶段观察到的风险和保护变量预测以后年龄的学校成功或失败的能力。这些变量的预测能力将根据关联的整体强度（乘积矩相关性）和预测准确性（例如敏感性和特异性）进行检查。 2. 不同年龄阶段往往同时出现的风险和保护变量的组合，以及与多变量因素组合时它们的集体预测能力的强度。将特别关注经验数据与风险/保护因素与学校成绩之间关联的理论表述的融合。 3. 不同年龄阶段学业失败与其他问题行为（例如外化和内化行为以及物质使用）同时发生（共病）的程度。 4. 风险/保护变量与学校成功/失败之间的预测关系的差异与学生的年龄、性别和种族相关。