Rebel-civilian relations and their effects on rebel-state bargaining dynamics

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

This project explores a novel contribution to the literature on conflict recurrence and rebel-state bargaining, by looking into rebel governance institutions and rebel-led political mobilization as variables that could mitigate the risk of conflict recurrence. Previous research has produced contradictory results when looking at the effects of rebel governance on rebel-state negotiations and conflict resolution. I posit that a potential reason for this discrepancy is the fact that these studies did not pay attention to the level of civilian participation within rebel governance institutions or within a rebel-led movement or political party. Basing my argument on concepts from the democratic peace theory and the audience costs theory, I argue that rebels employing participatory forms of rebel-civilian relations provide more reliable information on popular support and resolve, therefore can more easily establish negotiations with the state, with a lower rate of conflict recurrence after the negotiations happen.