Persistent droughts and water supply system risk in a changing climate

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Droughts present a significant risk to public water supply systems in England and so water companies are now planning to meet 1 in 500-year drought resilience standards. However, it is essential that climate change is taken into account. In the west of the UK, water resource systems are dominated by upland reservoir storage. Typically, reservoir storage draws down from March/April and refills through the autumn/winter. In sustained dry weather there is little inflow to the reservoirs, with severe drought occurrence dependent on prolonged atmospheric blocking systems. Significant infrastructure investment is planned to ensure water resources are resilient to future extreme droughts. There is a knowledge gap around the patterns of long-term precipitation anomalies and how they might extend beyond summer months. Going beyond historical data to understand plausible more extreme events under climate change, is vital to enhance our understanding of risk and its mitigation. This WIRe CDT PhD will use the latest climate model outputs and stochastic weather generators to characterise the risk to supply systems. It will result in an improved understanding of drought risk, allowing United Utilities to protect its customers from the consequences of longer duration droughts by providing methods for incorporating risk assessments into water resources planning.