Persistent droughts and water supply system risk in a changing climate

干旱给英国的公共供水系统带来了重大风险，因此供水公司现在正计划达到500年一遇的抗旱能力标准。然而，必须考虑到气候变化。在英国西部，水资源系统主要由高地水库储存。通常，水库的储水量从3月/ 4月开始减少，并在秋季/冬季重新补充。在持续干旱的天气里，水库的入水量很少，严重的干旱发生依赖于长期的大气阻塞系统。计划进行大量基础设施投资，以确保水资源能够抵御未来的极端干旱。关于长期降水异常的模式以及它们如何延伸到夏季之后，目前还存在知识缺口。超越历史数据来理解气候变化下可能出现的更极端事件，对于增强我们对风险及其缓解的理解至关重要。这个WIRe CDT博士将使用最新的气候模型输出和随机天气发生器来描述供应系统的风险。它将使人们更好地了解干旱风险，使联合公用事业公司能够通过提供将风险评估纳入水资源规划的方法，保护其客户免受持续时间较长的干旱的影响。

Droughts present a significant risk to public water supply systems in England and so water companies are now planning to meet 1 in 500-year drought resilience standards. However, it is essential that climate change is taken into account. In the west of the UK, water resource systems are dominated by upland reservoir storage. Typically, reservoir storage draws down from March/April and refills through the autumn/winter. In sustained dry weather there is little inflow to the reservoirs, with severe drought occurrence dependent on prolonged atmospheric blocking systems. Significant infrastructure investment is planned to ensure water resources are resilient to future extreme droughts. There is a knowledge gap around the patterns of long-term precipitation anomalies and how they might extend beyond summer months. Going beyond historical data to understand plausible more extreme events under climate change, is vital to enhance our understanding of risk and its mitigation. This WIRe CDT PhD will use the latest climate model outputs and stochastic weather generators to characterise the risk to supply systems. It will result in an improved understanding of drought risk, allowing United Utilities to protect its customers from the consequences of longer duration droughts by providing methods for incorporating risk assessments into water resources planning.