Addressing coastal erosion: Stochastic modelling of shoreline evolution under a changing climate

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According to the intergovernmental climate change reports, coastal erosion and flooding represent two of the most prominent hazards for the next 100 years. However, the complexity, nonlinearity and range of time scales of the processes involved makes their prediction using conventional deterministic frameworks infeasible and subject to uncertainty. To address this challenge the PhD project will develop an approach to the long-term prediction of shoreline changes using stochastic (probabilistic rather thandeterministic) models. In particular, the research will investigate how to combine a stochastic model for runup and erosion due to wave breaking and storm surges with a long-term model for coastal morphology and flood risk. The novelty of the project lies in its combination of stochastic processes, wave mechanics and coastal morphology within a single model. The project relates directly to the following EPSRC research areas: coastal and waterway engineering, operational research, fluid dynamics and climate resilience.