Addressing coastal erosion: Stochastic modelling of shoreline evolution under a changing climate

根据政府间气候变化报告，海岸侵蚀和洪水是未来100年最突出的两种危害。然而，所涉及的过程的复杂性、非线性和时间尺度范围使得使用传统的确定性框架进行预测是不可行的，并且容易受到不确定性的影响。为了应对这一挑战，博士项目将开发一种使用随机(概率而不是确定性)模型对海岸线变化进行长期预测的方法。特别是，这项研究将研究如何将波浪破碎和风暴潮造成的爬升和侵蚀的随机模型与海岸地形和洪水风险的长期模型结合起来。该项目的创新之处在于它将随机过程、波浪力学和海岸地貌结合在一个模型中。该项目直接涉及EPSRC的下列研究领域：海岸和航道工程、运筹学、流体动力学和气候复原力。

According to the intergovernmental climate change reports, coastal erosion and flooding represent two of the most prominent hazards for the next 100 years. However, the complexity, nonlinearity and range of time scales of the processes involved makes their prediction using conventional deterministic frameworks infeasible and subject to uncertainty. To address this challenge the PhD project will develop an approach to the long-term prediction of shoreline changes using stochastic (probabilistic rather thandeterministic) models. In particular, the research will investigate how to combine a stochastic model for runup and erosion due to wave breaking and storm surges with a long-term model for coastal morphology and flood risk. The novelty of the project lies in its combination of stochastic processes, wave mechanics and coastal morphology within a single model. The project relates directly to the following EPSRC research areas: coastal and waterway engineering, operational research, fluid dynamics and climate resilience.