Explaining Inequality via Trade and Productivity: The Case of the UK.

2022年的生活成本危机和英国退出欧盟，使英国本已日益严重的不平等程度急剧增加。了解不平等迅速加剧的根本原因，是英国政策制定者极为关心的问题。然而，现有的经济模型无法预测或解释英国脱欧导致的贸易壁垒改变后不平等增长的加速，特别是在英国生产率增长持续停滞的背景下(英国生产率之谜自英国脱欧以来一直恶化)。拟议的政策导向研究位于国际宏观经济学和家庭经济学的结合点，研究不平等与两大相互关联的经济力量--国际贸易和生产率--之间的动态相互作用，这两种力量对预测英国不平等的未来都至关重要。提出了尖端的理论建模框架，将分解的大数据经验分析提供的风格化事实纳入最先进的动态国际贸易宏观经济模型，可以通过生产率的变化来量化贸易审议对不平等的影响。此外，该模型框架将允许检验不平等与生产率之间的相互作用，以解释英国生产率长期停滞的原因和不平等的结构性趋势。通过提高我们对导致不平等加剧和生产率增长放缓的一般均衡互动的理解-随着英国在英国退欧后转变其贸易关系-尤其重要，拟议中的研究不仅对政策制定者具有直接影响，还可能为英国生产率之谜提供另一种潜在的中肯解释。

The 2022 cost-of-living crisis and the UK's exit from the European Union, the already rising levels of inequality in the UK have increased dramatically. Understanding the underlying causes of rapidly rising inequality is of vital concern to UK policymakers. However, existing economic models could not anticipate nor explain this acceleration in the growth of inequality following the changes in trade barriers caused by Brexit, particularly given the backdrop of the persistent stagnation of UK productivity growth (known as the UK Productivity Puzzle), which has worsened since Brexit.The proposed policy-oriented research sits at the nexus of international macroeconomics and household economics, addressing the dynamic interactions between inequality and two large interconnected economic forces: international trade and productivity, both of key importance in predicting the future of inequality in the UK.The cutting-edge theoretical modelling framework proposed, incorporating stylised facts informed by disaggregated Big Data empirical analysis into a state-of-the-art dynamic macroeconomic model of international trade, allows quantifying the impact of trade deliberalisation on inequality, through changes in productivity. Additionally, the modelling framework will allow an examination of interaction between inequality and productivity, to explain both the long-running stagnation of UK productivity and structural trends in inequality. By improving our understanding of the general equilibrium interactions that lead to increased inequality and slower productivity growth - especially important as the UK transforms its trading relationships post-Brexit, the proposed research not only has direct implications for policymakers, but could also offer another potential pertinent explanation for the UK Productivity Puzzle.