Explaining Inequality via Trade and Productivity: The Case of the UK.

2022年的生活成本危机和英国退出欧盟，英国本已上升的不平等水平急剧上升。了解不平等迅速加剧的根本原因是英国政策制定者至关重要的问题。然而，现有的经济模型无法预测也无法解释英国退欧导致贸易壁垒变化后不平等增长的加速，特别是考虑到英国生产率增长持续停滞的背景（被称为英国生产率之谜），自英国脱欧以来已经恶化。拟议的政策导向研究位于国际宏观经济学和家庭经济学的联系，解决不平等与两大相互关联的经济力量之间的动态互动：国际贸易和生产力，两者在预测英国未来的不平等方面都至关重要。提出的尖端理论建模框架，将通过分类大数据实证分析得出的程式化事实纳入到一个国际贸易的动态宏观经济模型，允许通过生产力的变化量化贸易协商对不平等的影响。此外，模型框架将允许检查不平等和生产力之间的相互作用，以解释英国生产力的长期停滞和不平等的结构性趋势。通过提高我们对导致不平等加剧和生产率增长放缓的一般均衡相互作用的理解--尤其是在英国脱欧后转变其贸易关系之际--拟议的研究不仅对政策制定者有直接影响，而且还可能为英国生产率之谜提供另一种潜在的相关解释。

The 2022 cost-of-living crisis and the UK's exit from the European Union, the already rising levels of inequality in the UK have increased dramatically. Understanding the underlying causes of rapidly rising inequality is of vital concern to UK policymakers. However, existing economic models could not anticipate nor explain this acceleration in the growth of inequality following the changes in trade barriers caused by Brexit, particularly given the backdrop of the persistent stagnation of UK productivity growth (known as the UK Productivity Puzzle), which has worsened since Brexit.The proposed policy-oriented research sits at the nexus of international macroeconomics and household economics, addressing the dynamic interactions between inequality and two large interconnected economic forces: international trade and productivity, both of key importance in predicting the future of inequality in the UK.The cutting-edge theoretical modelling framework proposed, incorporating stylised facts informed by disaggregated Big Data empirical analysis into a state-of-the-art dynamic macroeconomic model of international trade, allows quantifying the impact of trade deliberalisation on inequality, through changes in productivity. Additionally, the modelling framework will allow an examination of interaction between inequality and productivity, to explain both the long-running stagnation of UK productivity and structural trends in inequality. By improving our understanding of the general equilibrium interactions that lead to increased inequality and slower productivity growth - especially important as the UK transforms its trading relationships post-Brexit, the proposed research not only has direct implications for policymakers, but could also offer another potential pertinent explanation for the UK Productivity Puzzle.