Spatially-explicit mathematical model of human monocytic ehrlichiosis

描述（由申请人提供）：本工作拟开发、分析和应用蜱传疾病人类单核细胞埃里希体病（致病因子：查菲埃里希体）的空间明确数学模型。该项目是冬青D的指导职业发展计划的一部分。J. Stephen Dumler作为主要导师。通过这个辅导项目的过程中，并在公共卫生硕士的完成，她将有一个成功的职业生涯作出重大贡献的传染病的研究和公共卫生的改善奠定了坚实的基础。Gaff博士的长期职业目标是帮助建立一个由学生，博士后研究员，其他教职员工组成的实验室，以探索传染病的生态学，特别关注蜱传和其他媒介传播的疾病。该项目将探索各种数学模型，以深入了解埃立克体病，并为每个涉及的人群确定最强的模型。已确定的HME主要媒介是孤星星蜱（Amblyomma americanum），主要储存宿主是白尾鹿（Odocoileus virginianus）。起始假设是模型系统，这将涉及蜱虫种群的年龄结构随机模型和宿主种群的基于个体的模型。然后，该模型将被用来测试各种蜱虫和宿主物种的重要性，以及天气和栖息地的变化对HME的传播和控制的影响的假设。最后，将使用最优控制技术分析各种缓解策略，以期找到最大限度地降低HME对人类风险的方案。相关性：这一建模工作的结果将是对人类蜱传疾病爆发的空间和时间分布的新见解。对分布模式的了解有助于通知医疗专业人员警惕蜱传疾病患者的涌入，否则可能会被误诊。此外，该模型的分析将为更有效的治疗策略提供指导，以减少HME病例的数量。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This work proposes to develop, analyze and apply a spatially-explicit mathematical model for the tick-borne disease, human monocytic ehrlichiosis (causitive agent: Ehrlichia chaffeensis sp.). The project is part of the mentored career development plan for Holly D. Gaff with J. Stephen Dumler as primary mentor. Through the course of this mentored project and the completion of a Master in Public Health, she will have a solid foundation for a successful career making significant contributions to the study of infectious diseases and to the betterment of public health. Dr. Gaff's long-term career goal is to help establish a lab of students, postdoctoral fellows, other faculty and staff to explore the ecology of infectious diseases with specific focus on tick-borne and other vector-borne diseases. The project will explore a variety of mathematical models to gain insights into ehrlichiosis and to identify the strongest model for each population involved. The identified primary vector of HME is the Lone Star tick (Amblyomma americanum), and the primary reservoir host is the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The starting hypothesis is the model system this will involve an age-structured, stochastic model for the tick populations and an individual-based model for the host populations. This model will then be used to test hypotheses regarding the importance of various tick and host species as well as impacts of weather and habitat variability on the spread and control of HME. Finally, various mitigation strategies will be analyzed using optimal control techniques in the hopes of finding scenarios that will minimize the risk of HME to humans. Relevance: The results of this modeling effort will be new insights into the spatial and temporal distribution of human tick-borne disease outbreaks. Insights into the distribution patterns can be helpful for notification of medical professionals to be watchful for influx of patients with tick-borne diseases, which otherwise may be misdiagnosed. Additionally, the analysis of the model will provide guidance for more effective treatment strategies to hopefully reduce the numbers of HME cases.