Spatially-explicit mathematical model of human monocytic ehrlichiosis

描述（由申请人提供）：本工作旨在开发、分析和应用一个空间明确的蜱传疾病——人类单核细胞埃利希体病（病原体：沙菲埃利希体）的数学模型。该项目是霍莉·d·加夫的指导职业发展计划的一部分，j·斯蒂芬·杜姆勒是主要的导师。通过这个指导项目的过程和完成公共卫生硕士学位，她将为成功的职业生涯奠定坚实的基础，为传染病研究和改善公共卫生做出重大贡献。Gaff博士的长期职业目标是帮助建立一个由学生，博士后研究员，其他教职员工组成的实验室，以探索传染病的生态学，特别关注蜱传疾病和其他媒介传播疾病。该项目将探索各种数学模型，以深入了解埃利希体病，并为每个涉及的人群确定最强的模型。经鉴定，HME的主要媒介为孤星蜱（Amblyomma americanum），主要宿主为白尾鹿（Odocoileus virginianus）。开始的假设是模型系统，这将涉及一个年龄结构的，蜱虫种群的随机模型和一个基于个体的宿主种群模型。然后，该模型将用于测试关于各种蜱虫和宿主物种的重要性的假设，以及天气和栖息地变化对HME传播和控制的影响。最后，将使用最优控制技术分析各种缓解策略，以期找到将HME对人类风险降至最低的方案。相关性：这项建模工作的结果将为人类蜱传疾病爆发的时空分布提供新的见解。对分布模式的深入了解有助于通知医疗专业人员注意蜱传疾病患者的涌入，否则可能会被误诊。此外，该模型的分析将为更有效的治疗策略提供指导，以期减少HME病例的数量。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This work proposes to develop, analyze and apply a spatially-explicit mathematical model for the tick-borne disease, human monocytic ehrlichiosis (causitive agent: Ehrlichia chaffeensis sp.). The project is part of the mentored career development plan for Holly D. Gaff with J. Stephen Dumler as primary mentor. Through the course of this mentored project and the completion of a Master in Public Health, she will have a solid foundation for a successful career making significant contributions to the study of infectious diseases and to the betterment of public health. Dr. Gaff's long-term career goal is to help establish a lab of students, postdoctoral fellows, other faculty and staff to explore the ecology of infectious diseases with specific focus on tick-borne and other vector-borne diseases. The project will explore a variety of mathematical models to gain insights into ehrlichiosis and to identify the strongest model for each population involved. The identified primary vector of HME is the Lone Star tick (Amblyomma americanum), and the primary reservoir host is the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The starting hypothesis is the model system this will involve an age-structured, stochastic model for the tick populations and an individual-based model for the host populations. This model will then be used to test hypotheses regarding the importance of various tick and host species as well as impacts of weather and habitat variability on the spread and control of HME. Finally, various mitigation strategies will be analyzed using optimal control techniques in the hopes of finding scenarios that will minimize the risk of HME to humans. Relevance: The results of this modeling effort will be new insights into the spatial and temporal distribution of human tick-borne disease outbreaks. Insights into the distribution patterns can be helpful for notification of medical professionals to be watchful for influx of patients with tick-borne diseases, which otherwise may be misdiagnosed. Additionally, the analysis of the model will provide guidance for more effective treatment strategies to hopefully reduce the numbers of HME cases.