Spatially-explicit mathematical model of human monocytic ehrlichiosis

描述(由申请人提供)：这项工作建议开发、分析和应用一种空间显式数学模型，用于硬虱传播的疾病--人类单核细胞埃立克体病(致癌剂：查菲埃利希氏菌)。该项目是霍莉·D·加夫的导师职业发展计划的一部分，J·斯蒂芬·杜姆勒是主要导师。通过这个指导项目的课程和公共卫生硕士学位的完成，她将为成功的职业生涯奠定坚实的基础，为传染病研究和改善公共卫生做出重大贡献。加夫博士的长期职业目标是帮助建立一个由学生、博士后研究员、其他教职员工组成的实验室，探索传染病的生态学，特别是专注于壁虱传播和其他媒介传播的疾病。该项目将探索各种数学模型，以获得对埃立克体病的洞察，并为每个涉及的人群确定最强的模型。经鉴定，HME的主要媒介是孤星蜱(Amblyomma Americanum)，主要宿主是白尾鹿(Odocoileus Virginianus)。最初的假设是模型系统，这将涉及到针对扁虱种群的年龄结构的随机模型和针对宿主种群的基于个体的模型。然后，这个模型将被用来检验关于不同扁虱和寄主物种的重要性以及天气和栖息地变化对HME传播和控制的影响的假设。最后，将使用最优控制技术分析各种缓解策略，希望找到将HME对人类的风险降至最低的情景。相关性：这项建模工作的结果将是对人类壁虱传播疾病暴发的空间和时间分布的新见解。对分布模式的洞察有助于通知医疗专业人员警惕携带硬蜱传播疾病的患者的涌入，否则这些患者可能会被误诊。此外，对模型的分析将为更有效的治疗策略提供指导，有望减少HME病例的数量。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This work proposes to develop, analyze and apply a spatially-explicit mathematical model for the tick-borne disease, human monocytic ehrlichiosis (causitive agent: Ehrlichia chaffeensis sp.). The project is part of the mentored career development plan for Holly D. Gaff with J. Stephen Dumler as primary mentor. Through the course of this mentored project and the completion of a Master in Public Health, she will have a solid foundation for a successful career making significant contributions to the study of infectious diseases and to the betterment of public health. Dr. Gaff's long-term career goal is to help establish a lab of students, postdoctoral fellows, other faculty and staff to explore the ecology of infectious diseases with specific focus on tick-borne and other vector-borne diseases. The project will explore a variety of mathematical models to gain insights into ehrlichiosis and to identify the strongest model for each population involved. The identified primary vector of HME is the Lone Star tick (Amblyomma americanum), and the primary reservoir host is the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). The starting hypothesis is the model system this will involve an age-structured, stochastic model for the tick populations and an individual-based model for the host populations. This model will then be used to test hypotheses regarding the importance of various tick and host species as well as impacts of weather and habitat variability on the spread and control of HME. Finally, various mitigation strategies will be analyzed using optimal control techniques in the hopes of finding scenarios that will minimize the risk of HME to humans. Relevance: The results of this modeling effort will be new insights into the spatial and temporal distribution of human tick-borne disease outbreaks. Insights into the distribution patterns can be helpful for notification of medical professionals to be watchful for influx of patients with tick-borne diseases, which otherwise may be misdiagnosed. Additionally, the analysis of the model will provide guidance for more effective treatment strategies to hopefully reduce the numbers of HME cases.