Interactions between landscape level vulnerability and zoonotic outbreak risk at a global scale

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Over 10.000 different virus species have the capacity to infect humans. Although the majority of these are silently circulating in wild animals, climate change and human induced land use change are breaking down the geographical barriers. This creates novel opportunities for wildlife carrying those viruses to encounter other animals and humans, and opportunity to share viruses, these are called zoonotic spillover events. Tackling this issue of global environmental changes and disease outbreaks requires a one health approach, linking human health, animal health and environmental health. The drivers of zoonoses are complex and multifaceted, and understanding their interaction requires a holistic approach. This can be realised through fostering a culture of collaboration, multi-, trans-, and inter-disciplinary work that provides integrated solutions that put an environmental approach at its core. This project specifically, will employ a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. A review of the literature will be performed to collate evidence and possible alternate sources of data. Similarly, a review will be conducted to map and identify innovative methodological tools and techniques across a range of disciplines and research areas. Furthermore, this research will make use of cutting-edge statistical techniques, analyse vast datasets encompassing climate data, land use patterns from satellite data and biodiversity metrics. Through sophisticated spatial modelling we will be able to delve deep into the intricate relationships between these factors which will be critical to understand what drives zoonotic spillover, and additionally, identify and predict global hotspots/areas that are potential geographic points of origin. Through this, a body of evidence will be amassed that provides an understanding what drives zoonotic disease spillover and identifies vulnerable regions globally. Translating this evidence into evidence-based policy will be crucial to developing solutions in terms of prevention and breaking the chain of transmission (UN report) to reduce the risks from emerging or re-emerging zoonotic diseases. To this aim, some work will be undertaken at the WHO Pandemic Hub in Berlin this collaboration and others within the CDT and with other partners will foster the research excellence and impact. The work at the WHO Pandemic Hub will be to develop user interfaces and develop climate-resilient outbreak management recommendations and participate in strategic planning efforts. Not only specialized and technical skills but also general professional competencies are indispensable and will be developed throughout the duration of the CDT. While specialized skills (like spatial modelling, mathematics and statistics) empower to delve deep into academic domains, the fusion of these abilities with general professional skills (such as science communication, collaboration, leadership and project management) is pivotal. Expertise gains significance when coupled with the capability to translate complex research into policies that are comprehensible to policymakers and the general population. All these objectives are strongly in line with the vision, strategy and delivery plans of the UK Research and Innovation and respective councils (MRC, BBRSRC and MRC), specifically relating to the tackling infections theme. Finally, embracing interdisciplinarity, especially in fields like one health, acknowledges the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health. Advocating for innovative and integrated solutions will bridge gaps between disciplines and craft effective strategies to mitigate the risks associated with zoonotic diseases, ensuring a more resilient and healthier global community.