Interactions between landscape level vulnerability and zoonotic outbreak risk at a global scale

超过10，000种不同的病毒物种有能力感染人类。虽然其中大多数在野生动物中悄悄传播，但气候变化和人类引起的土地利用变化正在打破地理障碍。这为携带这些病毒的野生动物创造了新的机会，让它们与其他动物和人类相遇，并有机会分享病毒，这些被称为人畜共患病溢出事件。要解决全球环境变化和疾病爆发这一问题，就需要采取一种健康办法，将人类健康、动物健康和环境健康联系起来。人畜共患病的驱动因素是复杂和多方面的，理解它们的相互作用需要采取整体方法。这可以通过培养合作文化，多学科，跨学科和跨学科的工作来实现，提供以环境方法为核心的综合解决方案。具体而言，该项目将采用定量和定性相结合的方法。将进行文献综述，以整理证据和可能的替代数据来源。同样，还将进行一次审查，以绘制和确定一系列学科和研究领域的创新方法工具和技术。此外，这项研究将利用最先进的统计技术，分析包括气候数据、卫星数据和生物多样性指标的土地利用模式在内的大量数据集。通过复杂的空间建模，我们将能够深入研究这些因素之间的复杂关系，这对于了解是什么驱动人畜共患病溢出至关重要，此外，还可以识别和预测作为潜在地理起源点的全球热点/地区。通过这一过程，将积累大量证据，帮助人们了解是什么推动了人畜共患病的蔓延，并确定全球脆弱地区。将这些证据转化为循证政策对于制定预防和打破传播链方面的解决方案至关重要，以减少新出现或重新出现的人畜共患病的风险。为此，将在世卫组织柏林大流行病中心开展一些工作，这种合作以及CDT内部的其他合作以及与其他合作伙伴的合作将促进研究的卓越性和影响。世卫组织大流行病中心的工作将是开发用户界面，制定应对气候变化的疫情管理建议，并参与战略规划工作。不仅专业技能和技术技能，而且一般专业能力也是必不可少的，将在CDT的整个期间得到发展。虽然专业技能（如空间建模，数学和统计学）能够深入研究学术领域，但这些能力与一般专业技能（如科学交流，协作，领导力和项目管理）的融合至关重要。如果能够将复杂的研究成果转化为决策者和普通民众能够理解的政策，那么专门知识就具有重要意义。所有这些目标都与联合王国研究与创新委员会和各委员会（MRC、BBRSRC和MRC）的愿景、战略和交付计划非常一致，特别是与应对感染主题有关。最后，拥抱跨学科，特别是在一个健康领域，承认人类，动物和环境健康的相互联系。倡导创新和综合解决方案将弥合学科之间的差距，并制定有效的战略，以减轻与人畜共患病相关的风险，确保全球社会更具弹性和更健康。

Over 10.000 different virus species have the capacity to infect humans. Although the majority of these are silently circulating in wild animals, climate change and human induced land use change are breaking down the geographical barriers. This creates novel opportunities for wildlife carrying those viruses to encounter other animals and humans, and opportunity to share viruses, these are called zoonotic spillover events. Tackling this issue of global environmental changes and disease outbreaks requires a one health approach, linking human health, animal health and environmental health. The drivers of zoonoses are complex and multifaceted, and understanding their interaction requires a holistic approach. This can be realised through fostering a culture of collaboration, multi-, trans-, and inter-disciplinary work that provides integrated solutions that put an environmental approach at its core. This project specifically, will employ a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods. A review of the literature will be performed to collate evidence and possible alternate sources of data. Similarly, a review will be conducted to map and identify innovative methodological tools and techniques across a range of disciplines and research areas. Furthermore, this research will make use of cutting-edge statistical techniques, analyse vast datasets encompassing climate data, land use patterns from satellite data and biodiversity metrics. Through sophisticated spatial modelling we will be able to delve deep into the intricate relationships between these factors which will be critical to understand what drives zoonotic spillover, and additionally, identify and predict global hotspots/areas that are potential geographic points of origin. Through this, a body of evidence will be amassed that provides an understanding what drives zoonotic disease spillover and identifies vulnerable regions globally. Translating this evidence into evidence-based policy will be crucial to developing solutions in terms of prevention and breaking the chain of transmission (UN report) to reduce the risks from emerging or re-emerging zoonotic diseases. To this aim, some work will be undertaken at the WHO Pandemic Hub in Berlin this collaboration and others within the CDT and with other partners will foster the research excellence and impact. The work at the WHO Pandemic Hub will be to develop user interfaces and develop climate-resilient outbreak management recommendations and participate in strategic planning efforts. Not only specialized and technical skills but also general professional competencies are indispensable and will be developed throughout the duration of the CDT. While specialized skills (like spatial modelling, mathematics and statistics) empower to delve deep into academic domains, the fusion of these abilities with general professional skills (such as science communication, collaboration, leadership and project management) is pivotal. Expertise gains significance when coupled with the capability to translate complex research into policies that are comprehensible to policymakers and the general population. All these objectives are strongly in line with the vision, strategy and delivery plans of the UK Research and Innovation and respective councils (MRC, BBRSRC and MRC), specifically relating to the tackling infections theme. Finally, embracing interdisciplinarity, especially in fields like one health, acknowledges the interconnectedness of human, animal, and environmental health. Advocating for innovative and integrated solutions will bridge gaps between disciplines and craft effective strategies to mitigate the risks associated with zoonotic diseases, ensuring a more resilient and healthier global community.