Atmospheric measurements and modelling to support the Montreal Protocol and international climate agreements

在2018年至2021年发表在《自然》杂志上的一系列四篇论文[例如，1，2]中，我们的团队使用大气数据提出了重大违反《蒙特利尔议定书》的证据，该议定书是一项旨在保护平流层臭氧层的普遍批准的条约；尽管2010年全球颁布了禁令，但强大的臭氧消耗物质CFC-11的排放量自2012年以来一直在增加。随后，媒体进行了密集报道，并在中国启动了执法行动，新排放的很大一部分排放被发现来自那里。随后，排放量大幅下降，二氧化碳当量相当于整个伦敦的排放量。在这里，我们将开发全球和区域大气模拟工具，为探测蒙特利尔议定书和其他国际气候文件所涵盖的各种温室气体和臭氧消耗物质排放的类似异常趋势提供“早期预警系统”。大气化学研究小组是国际高级全球大气气体实验(AGAGE)的主要成员。AGAGE测量了50多种《蒙特利尔议定书》和《京都议定书》涵盖的温室气体和臭氧消耗物质。为了从AGAGE数据推断排放，需要大气化学和输送的模型。这些推定的排放量被报告给英国政府，对国际气候决策至关重要。在本项目中，您将：a)创建新的计算高效的开源建模工具，利用来自AGAGE和其他国际网络的远程监测点的观测数据推断全球温室气体排放量，使我们能够了解全球排放量是如何变化的；b)使用气象局名称模型和贝叶斯方法设计一个可操作的区域排放估计框架，以“精确定位”测量站附近的主要污染源。C)开发一个基于云的系统，以便高效和开放地共享数据、模型输出和代码，从而确保有关各方透明和快速地获取结果[1]蒙兹卡，S.A.等人，《自然》，第557(7705)号，第413-417号，DOI：10.1038/s41586-0180106-2,2018年[2]里格比等人，《自然》，第569(7757)，546-550，DOI：10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4,2019年。

In a series of four papers published in Nature between 2018 and 2021 [e.g., 1,2], our team used atmospheric data to present evidence of a major violation of the Montreal Protocol, the universally ratified treaty designed to protect the stratospheric ozone layer; emissions of the potent ozone depleting substance, CFC-11, had increased since 2012, despite the global ban in 2010. Intense media coverage followed, and enforcement activities were initiated in China, where a substantial fraction of the new emissions were found to originate. Subsequently, emissions dropped substantially, with a CO2-equivalent magnitude equal to that of the whole of London. Here, we will develop global and regional atmospheric modelling tools to provide an "early warning system" for the detection of similar anomalous trends in the emissions of a wide range of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances covered by the Montreal Protocol and other international climate treaties.The Atmospheric Chemistry Research Group (ACRG) is a key member of the international Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE). AGAGE measures over 50 greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances covered by the Montreal and Kyoto Protocols. To infer emissions from the AGAGE data, models of atmospheric chemistry and transport are required. These inferred emissions are reported to the UK government, and are vital to international decision making on climate. In this project, you will:a) create new computationally efficient open-source modelling tools to infer global greenhouse gas emissions using observations from remote monitoring sites from AGAGE and other international networks, allowing us to understand how global emissions are changingb) devise an operational regional emissions estimation framework using the Met Office NAME model and Bayesian methods to "pinpoint" major sources near measurement stations. c) develop a cloud-based system for the efficient and open sharing of data, model output and code, thus ensuring transparent and rapid access to results by interested parties[1] Montzka, S. A. et al., Nature, 557(7705), 413-417, doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0106-2, 2018. [2] Rigby, M. et al., Nature, 569(7757), 546-550, doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1193-4, 2019.