Improving the surveillance of novel and emerging infections

早期识别和监测新型和新出现的传染病，并了解导致延误的结构性因素，对于及时作出公共卫生反应和了解情况非常重要。SARS-CoV-2的出现表明，即使很容易发现疫情，在来源国控制病原体和防止国际传播的能力也可能失败。本工作方案将审议下列研究问题：(1)哪些因素可能延误新病例的报告，并可能表明国家报告基础设施不发达；(2)在国际传播发生之前发现和遏制新型疫情的实际限制是什么；(3)能否利用国际旅行和旅客信息推断新发或新发传染病严重漏报的国家/地区的发病率？

Early identification and surveillance of novel and emerging infectious diseases, and understanding the structural factors that contribute to delays, are important for timely public health responses and situational awareness. The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 demonstrated that even though an outbreak was readily detected, the ability to contain the pathogen within source countries and prevent international dissemination may fail. This programme of work will consider the following research questions: (1) What factors may delay the reporting of new disease cases and may indicate an underdeveloped national reporting infrastructure; (2) What are the practical limits on detecting and containing novel outbreaks before international dissemination occurs; (3) Can international travel and passenger information be used to infer incidence in countries/regions with significant underreporting of a new or emerging infectious disease?