The Second Demographic Transition in Japan

描述（由申请人提供）：日本在很大程度上是一个尚未开发的、潜在的非常丰富的见解来源，可以深入了解低生育率社会中家庭变化的速度、性质和影响的背景影响。拟议的工作将利用日本调查数据的多种来源，为两个长期项目建立经验基础：(a)研究日本家庭形成和解体的变化模式，以及(b)关于家庭行为的社会经济差异及其影响的跨国研究。在这两项长期研究中，我们的主要目标将是利用跨国差异来更好地理解低生育率社会中家庭变化的原因和后果如何受到历史、社会、经济和政治背景的调节。我们提出的分析将侧重于在广泛的西方工业化国家观察到的两个经验规律：(a)几乎普遍出现了以前不常见的家庭行为的“一揽子”；(b)这些行为中日益增长的社会经济差异。使用来自五个不同的全国代表性调查的个人数据（其中四个包含多轮调查）；我们将研究生育年龄、母亲就业、同居和离婚的增加，以及婚姻和生育之间关系的变化。我们的工作将解决三个具体目标：(1)记录五种家庭行为的趋势；(2)检查这些家庭行为的教育差异随时间的变化；(3)评估这些家庭行为与随后福祉的多个维度（收入、心理健康、婚姻满意度、生活满意度）的关联程度。在日本新出现的家庭变化模式与美国和欧洲有充分记录的家庭变化模式之间寻找经验上的相似性，将为变化的潜在力量的力量提供强有力的证据。同样，仔细记录日本家庭变化的独特特征，可能会对背景条件提供重要的见解，这些背景条件缓和了经济和观念力量的影响，这些力量被认为是美国和欧洲观察到的戏剧性家庭转变的基础。拟议的工作将研究日本新出现的家庭行为与妇女随后的心理健康和福祉之间的关系。日本是一个潜在的丰富的比较信息来源，可以用来评估在西方观察到的家庭与幸福之间联系的普遍性，并更好地理解社会、文化、经济和政治背景如何调节家庭行为与幸福之间的关系。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Japan is a largely untapped and potentially very rich source of insight into contextual influences on the pace, nature, and implications of family change in low-fertility societies. The proposed work will use multiple sources of Japanese survey data to establish an empirical foundation upon which to base two longer term projects: (a) research on changing patterns of family formation and dissolution in Japan and (b) cross-national research on socioeconomic differentials in family behavior and their implications. In both of these longer-term studies, our primary objective will be to capitalize on cross-national differences to better understand the ways in which the causes and consequences of family change in low-fertility societies are moderated by historical, social, economic, and political context. Our proposed analyses will focus on two empirical regularities observed across a wide range of western industrialized countries: (a) the near-universal emergence of a "package" of previously uncommon family behaviors and (b) growing socioeconomic differentials in these behaviors. Using individual data from five different nationally representative surveys (four of which contain multiple rounds); we will examine increases in age at motherhood, maternal employment, cohabitation, and divorce, and changes in the relationship between marriage and fertility. Our work will address three specific aims: (1) to document trends in the five family behaviors, (2) to examine change over time in educational differentials in these family behaviors and, (3) to assess the extent to which these family behaviors are associated with multiple dimensions of subsequent well-being (income, mental health, marital satisfaction, life satisfaction). Finding empirical similarities between emerging patterns family change in Japan and the well- documented patterns of family change in the U.S. and Europe would provide powerful evidence of the strength of the underlying forces of change. Similarly, careful documentation of distinctive features of family change in Japan may provide important insights into contextual conditions that moderate the influence of the economic and ideational forces thought to underlie the dramatic family transformations observed in the U.S. and Europe. The proposed work will examine relationships between newly emerging family behaviors and women's subsequent mental health and well-being in Japan. Japan is a potentially rich source of comparative information with which to evaluate the generality of linkages between family and well-being observed in the West and to better understand ways in which social, cultural, economic, and political context may moderate relationships between family behavior and well-being.