The Second Demographic Transition in Japan

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DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Japan is a largely untapped and potentially very rich source of insight into contextual influences on the pace, nature, and implications of family change in low-fertility societies. The proposed work will use multiple sources of Japanese survey data to establish an empirical foundation upon which to base two longer term projects: (a) research on changing patterns of family formation and dissolution in Japan and (b) cross-national research on socioeconomic differentials in family behavior and their implications. In both of these longer-term studies, our primary objective will be to capitalize on cross-national differences to better understand the ways in which the causes and consequences of family change in low-fertility societies are moderated by historical, social, economic, and political context. Our proposed analyses will focus on two empirical regularities observed across a wide range of western industrialized countries: (a) the near-universal emergence of a "package" of previously uncommon family behaviors and (b) growing socioeconomic differentials in these behaviors. Using individual data from five different nationally representative surveys (four of which contain multiple rounds); we will examine increases in age at motherhood, maternal employment, cohabitation, and divorce, and changes in the relationship between marriage and fertility. Our work will address three specific aims: (1) to document trends in the five family behaviors, (2) to examine change over time in educational differentials in these family behaviors and, (3) to assess the extent to which these family behaviors are associated with multiple dimensions of subsequent well-being (income, mental health, marital satisfaction, life satisfaction). Finding empirical similarities between emerging patterns family change in Japan and the well- documented patterns of family change in the U.S. and Europe would provide powerful evidence of the strength of the underlying forces of change. Similarly, careful documentation of distinctive features of family change in Japan may provide important insights into contextual conditions that moderate the influence of the economic and ideational forces thought to underlie the dramatic family transformations observed in the U.S. and Europe. The proposed work will examine relationships between newly emerging family behaviors and women's subsequent mental health and well-being in Japan. Japan is a potentially rich source of comparative information with which to evaluate the generality of linkages between family and well-being observed in the West and to better understand ways in which social, cultural, economic, and political context may moderate relationships between family behavior and well-being.