How post-industrial issue positions and salience shape the electoral trends of Western European parties

欧洲的老牌政党正面临着前所未有的挑战：与后工业主义相关的新社会风险正在上升，选民正变得越来越分化，民族民粹主义挑战者政党通过提出新问题获得了吸引力，而相当一部分选民仍然被遣散。这就提出了一个问题：不同的政党如何改变他们的政策立场来动员、保留和代表选民？我将通过全面分析政党在政策立场和问题重点方面决定采取的问题策略与他们在后工业时代面临不同挑战的不同部分选民中的选举成功之间的关系来回答这个问题。在三项研究中，我将论证问题位置和突出性的变化在西欧不同政党家庭的选举动员和选民保留中发挥着不同的作用。为此，我将利用欧洲社会调查和比较宣言项目的数据进行多元回归分析和调查实验，探索投票选择背后的机制。在第一个研究中，我打算全面分析社会民主主义策略对制造业和服务业工人投票选择的影响。在第二篇文章中，我计划考察基督教民主党派的后唯物主义策略对其选举成功的影响。在第三篇文章中，我想评估绿党的适应性策略在多大程度上促进了他们的选举成功，因为他们越来越强调非环境问题。了解政党在后工业和后物质主义问题维度的立场和突出程度如何在不同的选民人口结构中结构投票决定，可以指导我们理解为什么不同的选民投票给不同的政党或决定弃权。

Established parties in Europe are facing unprecedented challenges: new social risks associated with post-industrialism are on the rise, electorates are becoming increasingly fractionalised, and national-populist challenger parties have gained traction by raising new issues while significant parts of the electorate remain demobilised. This raises the question: How can different parties change their policy positions to mobilise, retain, and represent voters?I will aim to answer this question through a comprehensive analysis of the relationship between the issue strategies parties decide to pursue in terms of policy position and issue emphasis, and their electoral success among different parts of the electorate facing distinct challenges in a post-industrial age. In three studies, I will argue that changes in issue position and salience play distinct roles in structuring the electoral mobilisation and retainment of voters for different party families across Western Europe. For this purpose, I will draw on data from the European Social Survey and the Comparative Manifesto Project to conduct multivariate regression analyses as well as survey experiments exploring the mechanisms behind vote choice.In the first study, I plan to provide a comprehensive analysis of the effect of social democratic strategies on the vote choice of workers in the manufacturing and service industries. In the second article, I plan to examine the impact of postmaterialist strategies by Christian-democratic parties on their electoral success. In the third article, I would like to assess to what extent accommodative strategies of green parties, with increasing emphases on non environmental issues, contribute to their electoral success.Understanding how the positions and salience parties ascribe to post-industrial and postmaterialist issue dimensions structure voting decisions amongst different demographics of the electorate can guide our understanding of why different voters cast their vote for different parties or decide to abstain.