The Consequences of Teenage Childbearing

描述（申请人提供）：最近的研究表明，未成年母亲的不良后果是短暂的，几年后，未成年母亲的表现要好于未在青少年时期生育的类似妇女。实际上，这些研究发现，未成年母亲改变了生育时间，而不是生育数量，对于未成年生育的妇女来说，早育优于晚育。最近的文献依赖于一种工具变量技术，基本上比较了十几岁时流产（自然流产）的妇女与不流产的妇女。该提案指出，（人工）堕胎的存在和时机给这种方法带来了重要的偏见，这可能会导致青少年母亲是良性的结论，并提出了两种替代估计方法。第一个样本来自流产的妇女，并将流产的妇女与分娩的妇女进行比较。这个估计器偏离了良性的观点。使用有和没有堕胎的估计值，我们对青少年母亲的影响有了界限。初步估计表明，边界足够紧，可以提供信息。第二个新的估计是有效的，如果堕胎的时间（但不是使用）是无关的成人的结果。在这种情况下，IV和限制样本的估计可以结合起来，给一个一致的估计青少年母亲对成人的结果。初步估计支持这一假设的有效性。这项研究将把这些技术应用于全国家庭增长调查的四个阶段，以询问：1）青少年生育对教育程度（以年和高中毕业衡量）、婚姻状况、就业和工作时间、个人收入和家庭收入、相对于需求和总生育率的收入有什么影响？2)这些影响在生命周期中如何变化？和3）这些影响随着时间的推移有何变化？处理少女母亲问题的适当政策在很大程度上取决于其影响。如果最近的文献是正确的，那么，要么少女母亲不应被视为有问题的，要么必须通过改变潜在少女母亲的生活期望来解决这个问题，使她们有足够积极的生活前景，以免过早生育。如果青少年母亲的影响甚至对处于风险中的人口也是不利的，那么关于后果的教育是一种潜在的有效干预措施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Recent research has suggested that the adverse consequences of teenage motherhood are short- lived, and that, after a few years, teenage mothers do better than similar women who do not give birth as teens, In effect, these studies find that teenage motherhood changes the timing of births rather than the number of births and that, for the type of woman who gives birth as a teen, early childbearing is preferable to later childbearing. The recent literature has relied on an instrumental variables technique that essentially compares women who miscarry (have spontaneous abortions) as teens with women who do not miscarry. This proposal points out that the existence and timing of (induced) abortion creates important biases in that approach that may lead to the conclusion that teenage motherhood is benign and proposes two alternate estimators. The first drops from the sample women who aborted and compares those who miscarry with those who gave birth. This estimator is biased away from the benign view. Using the estimators with and without abortions gives us bounds on the effects of teen motherhood. Preliminary estimates indicate that the bounds are sufficiently tight to be informative. The second new estimator is valid if the timing (but not the use) of abortion is unrelated to adult outcomes. In this case, the IV and restricted-sample estimates can be combined to give a consistent estimate of the effects of teen motherhood on adult outcomes. Preliminary estimates support the validity of the assumption. The study will apply these techniques to four waves of the National Survey of Family Growth to ask 1) What is the effect of giving birth as a teen on educational attainment (measured in years and by high school graduation), marital status, employment and hours worked, individual earnings and household income, income relative to a measure of needs and total fertility? 2) How do these effects vary over the life-cycle? and 3) How have these effects changed over time? The appropriate policies for addressing teen motherhood depending critically on its effects. If the recent literature is correct, then either teen motherhood should not be viewed as problematic or it must be addressed by changing the life expectations of potential teen mothers so that they have prospects in life that are sufficiently positive to be jeopardized by early childbirth. If the effects of teen motherhood are adverse even for the population at-risk, then education about the consequences is a potentially effective intervention.