Uncertainty Propagation in Structures, Systems and Processes

结构、系统和过程中的不确定性传播

• 批准号: EP/D078601/1
• 负责人: Keith Worden
• 金额: $ 93.22万
• 依托单位: University of Sheffield
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2006
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2006 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FD078601%2F1
• 关键词: Uncertainty; Propagation; Structures; Systems; Processes

Modern engineering is relying increasingly on computer simulations and modelling for a wide range of processes over the life cycle of products and structures. This modelling extends from the design stage right through to decommisioning. Because of the expense of making prototypes for tesing, the modelling approach offers clear economic advantages. However, a major concern with such modelling is how uncertainties in the process are handled. To give an example, in a recent example of modelling the operation of heart valves, it was found that the results were very sensitive to the material specification of the heart tissue. In fact, for some values of the material parameters, the valves did not open. This is a critical issue in our understanding, as the properties of human tissue are subject to great variation. This project will improve our understanding of a number of issues concerning modelling under uncertainty. In the first case, the project will investigate issues of uncertainty quantification. There are many theories dealing with uncertainty and the project will determine which theories are appropriate under given conditions and how to assign a definite measure or extent of the uncertainty within a given theory. The second problem to be investigated concerns fusion i.e. if one is presented with more than one measure of uncertainty from different theories, how can they be combined. Finally, the most important problem for dynamics concerns propagation of uncertainty. If a model of a structure or system has uncertainty in its inputs, one must determine the reliability of the outputs or predictions.

在产品和结构的生命周期中，现代工程越来越依赖计算机模拟和建模。该建模从设计阶段一直延伸到退缩。由于制作原型用于制造的款项的费用，建模方法提供了明确的经济优势。但是，这种建模的主要问题是如何处理过程中的不确定性。举一个例子，在对心脏瓣膜操作进行建模的最新示例中，发现结果对心脏组织的材料规范非常敏感。实际上，对于材料参数的某些值，阀没有打开。这是我们理解的关键问题，因为人体组织的特性会差异很大。该项目将提高我们对在不确定性下建模的许多问题的理解。在第一种情况下，该项目将调查不确定性量化问题。有许多涉及不确定性的理论，该项目将确定在给定条件下哪些理论适当，以及如何在给定理论中分配不确定性的确定度量或程度。要调查的第二个问题是融合，即，如果出现了一个以上不同理论中的不确定性，如何合并它们。最后，动态最重要的问题涉及不确定性的传播。如果结构或系统的模型在其输入中具有不确定性，则必须确定输出或预测的可靠性。

项目成果

Control of Particle Damper Nonlinearity

• DOI: 10.2514/1.38795
• 发表时间: 2008-04
• 期刊: AIAA Journal
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Chian Wong;J. Rongong

Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of an FRF of a structure using a Gaussian process emulator

• DOI: 10.1016/j.ymssp.2011.06.013
• 发表时间: 2011-11
• 期刊: Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing
• 影响因子: 8.4
• 作者: Thomas E. Fricker;J. Oakley;N. Sims;K. Worden