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Decision support for building adaptation in a low-carbon climate change future

为低碳气候变化未来的适应建设提供决策支持

基本信息

批准号：
EP/F038240/1
负责人：
Phil Banfill
金额：
$ 79.54万
依托单位：
Heriot-Watt University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2008
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2008 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FF038240%2F1
关键词：
Decision support building adaptation low

项目摘要

Buildings must provide a comfortable internal environment for their users but how they perform depends on the weather to which they are exposed. The UK climate is already changing and this will demand different approaches to the way buildings are designed. However, the climate of the future cannot be predicted with complete certainty and this is reflected in the future climate scenarios being developed under the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP08), which are to be presented in probabilistic terms. This means that the information will be given in the form There is a 5% probability that the temperature will be greater than (value) . This uncertainty is unfamiliar for building designers, who are used to taking fixed extreme summer or winter conditions and designing cooling, ventilation and heating systems of sufficient capacity to cope with these design conditions. Consequently, there is a risk that buildings may not perform as designed, either because the building systems cannot adapt to the changing climate or because systems are over specified to deal with a climate scenario that does not happen. Future building performance is additionally constrained by the need to minimise CO2 emissions, so it is not appropriate or sustainable to simply build in over-capacity, for example by providing air-conditioning everywhere to cope with future summer weather. Equally, highly insulated and well sealed low-energy buildings may overheat as a result of the heat gained from the occupants and the equipment they use. These factors are likely to see a departure from the current way in which buildings are conceived and designs carried out as designers will need to take account of the frequency of occurrence of particular external conditions in selecting design criteria. This proposed project aims to develop a method of linking these probabilistic UKCIP08 climate scenarios to the requirements of the community of building services engineers. It will produce a practical method of designing economic and environmentally friendly heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems in both existing and new buildings. The method will be based on probabilistic data but will not require the user to understand sophisticated statistical theory.The project has several interlinked parts. The UKCIP08 data will be transformed statistically to give a set of simple design conditions which can be used by practitioners. A series of criteria will be developed to identify acceptable levels of building performance in the field of human comfort and systems provision. The performance of a series of case studies will be simulated from the probabilistic climate scenarios against these criteria. The experience of a senior building user group will be collected in order to quantify what needs to be known about building performance and the acceptability of risk so that buildings can be designed or adapted to accommodate the changing UK climate. The outcome will be a set of case study buildings in various UK locations which designers can call upon to support their decisions.

建筑物必须为使用者提供舒适的内部环境，但它们的表现取决于它们所暴露的天气。英国的气候已经在发生变化，这将需要不同的方法来设计建筑物。然而，未来的气候无法完全确定地预测，这反映在英国气候影响方案（UKCIP08）下正在制定的未来气候情景中，这些情景将以概率的形式呈现。这意味着信息将以以下形式给出：温度将大于（值）的概率为5%。这种不确定性对于建筑设计师来说是陌生的，他们习惯于采用固定的极端夏季或冬季条件，并设计足够容量的冷却，通风和加热系统来科普这些设计条件。因此，存在建筑物可能无法按设计运行的风险，因为建筑系统无法适应不断变化的气候，或者因为系统过度指定以应对不会发生的气候情景。未来的建筑性能还受到最大限度减少二氧化碳排放的限制，因此简单地建造产能过剩的建筑是不合适或不可持续的，例如通过在各处提供空调来科普未来的夏季天气。同样，高度隔热和密封良好的低能耗建筑物可能会由于居住者及其使用的设备获得的热量而过热。这些因素可能会偏离现时构思和设计建筑物的方法，因为设计师在选择设计准则时，须考虑特定外部情况出现的频密程度。该项目旨在开发一种方法，将这些概率UKCIP08气候情景与建筑服务工程师社区的要求联系起来。它将产生一种实用的方法，在现有和新的建筑物中设计经济和环保的供暖、通风和空调系统。该方法将基于概率数据，但不要求用户理解复杂的统计理论。UKCIP 08数据将进行统计转换，以提供一组可供从业人员使用的简单设计条件。将制定一系列标准，以确定建筑物在人体舒适度和系统供应方面的可接受性能水平。一系列案例研究的性能将根据这些标准从概率气候情景模拟。将收集高级建筑用户组的经验，以量化需要了解的建筑性能和风险的可接受性，使建筑物可以设计或调整，以适应不断变化的英国气候。其结果将是一组案例研究建筑在不同的英国地点，设计师可以呼吁支持他们的决定。