Adolescent Peer Social Network Dynamics and Problem Behavior

描述(由申请人提供)：生态学理论表明，青少年早期的同龄人群体经常形成鼓励问题行为的群体，导致更紧密、更容易越轨的同龄人群体，等等，在一个自我强化的循环中。我们称这一过程为有毒的同龄人传染。最好将其概念化为一个非线性动力系统(NDS)。我们建议建立NDS模型来解释中学同伴社会生态中问题行为(反社会行为、攻击性、物质使用)的发生和发展，特别是考察有毒同伴传染作为一个解释性假设。这项研究将在21所六到八年级的中学进行，参与了一项由NIDA资助的积极行为支持(PBS)计划的团体随机试验。一个主要目标是调查学校之间，特别是PBS项目和对照学校之间有毒同伴传播差异的差异。该项目需要收集多个场合的社会关系(社会网络)和相关行为数据，并观察它们之间随着时间的推移相互依赖的模式。参加评估的21所学校中的每所学校每学年将进行四次评估，连续两次进入六年级，直至八年级结束；因此，每个队列有12个观察点。学校级的模型将使用SIENA创建，这是一种最近开发的统计方法，专门用于估计不断演变的社交网络和共同进化的行为的模型。此外，当不同学校的影响差异很大时，将开发两级模型。为了实现这些雄心勃勃的目标，学校和学生样本众多，有必要对锡耶纳计算机软件进行几次重大升级，通过将其移植到多处理器计算环境来改善其估计性能，并增强其包括交互效应、全信息多级别模型和跨级别交互的能力。为此，我们正在与开发锡耶纳的研究人员合作，为项目目标进行必要的升级。该项目的成果将包括：(A)对不同中学样本中有毒同伴传染的流行率的估计；(B)最有可能和最不可能发生这种情况的条件；(C)公共广播系统作为一种阻止它的方式的有效性；以及(D)针对处理这一问题的同行指导的干预措施的建议。公共卫生相关性：这个项目将检验一项已经得到资助的学校层面积极行为干预的小组随机试验对青少年早期问题行为和同龄人群体动态之间的长期相互依赖的影响。这个从社会生态和发展理论发展而来的过程是一种有毒的同龄人传染。从属关系-行为相互依赖的非线性动态模型将使用专门为模拟这种过程而开发的计算机程序SIENA，从纵向(4x/年，6到8年级)数据进行统计估计。结果将解释同伴关系在问题行为发展中的作用，积极行为支持对这种联系的影响，并为未来的干预提供新的途径。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Ecological theory suggests that early adolescent peer groups regularly form which encourage problem behavior, leading to even closer, deviance-prone peer groups, and so on in a self-reinforcing cycle. We call this process toxic peer contagion. It is best conceptualized as a Nonlinear Dynamic System (NDS). We propose to develop NDS models that explain the onset to and growth of problem behaviors (antisocial behavior, aggression, substance use) in middle school peer social ecologies, and particularly to examine toxic peer contagion as an explanatory hypothesis. The study will be conducted in 21 sixth- to eighth-grade middle schools involved in an already underway, NIDA- funded group-randomized trial of the Positive Behavior Support (PBS) program. A major goal is to investigate variation in toxic peer contagion differences between schools, especially between PBS program and control schools. The project requires collecting social relationship (social network) and relevant behavioral data on multiple occasions, and observing the pattern of interdependence between them over time. Assessments will be conducted four times per school year, for two consecutive entering sixth-grade cohorts, through the end of their eighth-grade year in each of the 21 participating schools; thus, 12 observations per cohort. School-level models will be created using SIENA, a recently developed statistical methodology specifically designed to estimate models of evolving social networks and co-evolving behavior. Also, two-level models will be developed when effects vary significantly across schools. In order to accomplish these ambitious goals with this large, diverse sample of schools and students, it is necessary to perform several major upgrades to the SIENA computer software, improving its estimation performance by porting it to multiprocessor computing environments, and enhancing its ability to include interaction effects, full- information multilevel models, and cross-level interactions. For this purpose, we are partnering with the researchers who developed SIENA to make the upgrades necessary for project goals. The results of this project will include: (a) estimates of the prevalence of toxic peer contagion in a varigated sample of middle schools; (b) conditions under which it is most and least likely to occur; (c) the effectiveness of PBS as a way to discourage it; and (d) recommendations for peer-directed interventions for dealing with this problem. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: This project will examine the effect of a group-randomized trial of an already funded school-level positive behavior intervention on the over-time interdependence between early adolescent problem behavior and peer group dynamics. This process, developed from theories of social ecologies and development, is toxic peer contagion. Nonlinear dynamic models of affiliation-behavior interdependence will be statistically estimated from longitudinal (4x/yr, 6th to 8th grade) data using SIENA, a computer program specifically developed to model such processes. Results will explain the role of peer affiliations in development of problem behavior, the effect of positive behavior support on this linkage, and suggest new avenues for future interventions.