Measuring Cigarette Smoking Behavior Progression with Cross-Sectional Data

描述（申请人提供）：美国几十年的烟草研究和控制在国家和地方层面留下了大量的横断面调查数据。典型的数据来源包括自1975年以来的青年风险行为调查，自1984年以来的行为风险因素调查，自1971年以来的国家健康和营养检查调查，自1957年以来的国家健康访谈调查，自1975年以来的监测未来研究，自1971年以来的全国药物使用和健康调查，以及加州青年烟草调查。这些涉及数百万随机抽样受试者的多年数据是一项宝贵的资产，进一步探索这些数据将有利于烟草控制，以实现《2010年健康人》提出的目标。有效规划和评估烟草控制计划将受益于吸烟行为变化的数据（例如，从不吸烟者到吸烟者，从吸烟者到戒烟者，从戒烟者再到吸烟者），因为这些数据比传统使用的终生吸烟者或30天吸烟者的流行率更有信息量。衡量吸烟行为的变化需要纵向数据，而每年在州和地方一级收集纵向数据往往过于昂贵和复杂。我们的分析表明，横截面数据包含所需的纵向信息，但仍然存在的挑战是如何从数据中提取信息。通过长期的合作，该项目的研究人员已经认识到，来自工程和系统控制领域的概率离散事件系统（PDES）可以用来克服这一挑战。根据香农的采样原则，PDES技术已成功地用于模拟复杂的人机交互与横截面数据。本研究的目的是适应这种方法建模吸烟行为。本研究的四个目的是：（1）建立一个能够用节省成本的横断面数据评估吸烟行为进展的PDES吸烟行为模型;（2）分析常用烟草控制计划（例如，研究的主要目的是：（1）预测吸烟趋势，模拟不同的烟草控制情景，这些情景与“2010年健康人群”所设定的烟草控制目标直接相关;（2）为烟草研究和烟草控制实践开发将PDES方法计算机化的软件。十年的数据（1995-2004年），从全国药物使用和健康调查将被用来测试所提出的方法。然后将用纵向数据进一步验证这一方法（例如1997年全国青年纵向调查）。一个具有烟草研究和系统控制专门知识的合作研究小组已经成立，完全有能力执行这一项目。这项拟议的研究与公共卫生完全相关，因为预期的结果将为推进现有的烟草研究和加强国家烟草控制战略提供所需的技术和数据。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Several decades of tobacco research and control in the U.S. have left a large amount of cross-sectional survey data at the national and the local levels. Typical data sources include the Youth Risk Behavioral Survey since 1975, the Behavioral Risk Factor Survey since 1984, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey since 1971, the National Health Interview Survey since 1957, the Monitoring the Future Studies since 1975, the National Survey on Drug Use and Health since 1971, and the California Youth Tobacco Survey. These multisource multi-year data with millions of randomly sampled subjects consist of an invaluable asset and further exploration of the data would benefit tobacco control to reach the objectives set forth by the Healthy People 2010. Effective planning and evaluation of tobacco control programs will benefit from data on smoking behavior change (e.g., from nonsmokers to smokers, from smokers to quitters and from quitters backward to smokers again), because such data are more informative than the conventionally used prevalence rates of lifetime smokers or 30-day smokers. Measuring smoking behavior change requires longitudinal data and collecting longitudinal data at the state and local levels year by year are often too costly and too complex. Our analyses indicate that cross-sectional data contain the needed longitudinal information; but a challenge remaining is how to extract the information out of the data. Through a long-term of collaboration, the investigators of this project have recognized that the Probability Discrete Event System (PDES) from the engineering and system control field can be adapted to overcome this challenge. Following Shannon's sampling principles, the PDES technique has been successfully used in modeling sophisticated machine-human interactions with cross-sectional data. The goal of this study is to adapt this method for modeling smoking behavior. The four aims of this research are: (1) to establish a PDES smoking behavior model capable of assessing smoking behavior progression with cost-saving cross-sectional data; (2) to analyze effect of common tobacco control programs (e.g., taxation, restriction of sales and use of tobacco, school-based programs and tobacco cessation) on smoking behavior progression; (3) to predict smoking trends and to simulate different tobacco control scenarios that are directly related to the tobacco control objectives set by the Healthy People 2010; and (4) to develop software that computerizes the PDES method for tobacco research and tobacco control practice. Ten-year data (1995-2004) from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health will be used to test the proposed method. The method will then be further validated with longitudinal data (e.g. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997). A collaborative research team with expertise in tobacco research and system control has been established is well positioned to carry out this project. This proposed research is completely relevant to public health, because the expected results will provide needed techniques and data for advancing the existing tobacco research and strengthening the tobacco control strategies in the nation.