Fundamental Factors Affecting The Wealth and Retirement of Elderly Americans

描述（由申请人提供）：项目摘要和摘要：该项目旨在提供有关美国家庭在财务上为退休做好准备的程度的新信息。我们依靠一个增强的生命周期模型，修改，以纳入我们研究的各个问题的基本方面，进行我们的工作。我们专注于两个因素，文献（和我们）认为是重要的影响财富可供退休。首先，尽管有大量文献依赖生命周期模型来研究财富积累，但很少有论文关注儿童的作用。我们的工作将突出儿童在财富积累中的作用。在这样做的时候，我们比较了孩子对财富的影响，如果资产和收入测试转移对财富的影响。我们的工作对思考社会保障替代率也有潜在的重要意义。其次，我们将研究养老金对非养老金财富积累的作用。虽然以前的大量文献探讨了这一主题，我们的工作完全不同的会计寿命（过去和未来）的资源。更重要的是，如果在用于估计的样本中存在信贷约束和无约束家庭的混合，则很难解释过去对养老金对非养老金财富积累的影响的估计。我们澄清了这些问题，并提供了一种新的方式来思考养老金对财富积累的影响。 我们的第三个拟议项目将研究财富与退休预期和退休的相互作用方式。对于一些家庭来说，应对实际或感知的退休财富短缺（盈余）的一种方法是推迟（加速）退休。我们将使用实际和最佳净值之间的差异（来自不确定性的增强生命周期模型）来研究退休预期和财富与退休决策的相关性。我们还将开发和估计一个新的退休模型的参数。我们的第四个项目将全面考察美国不同出生群体家庭的退休财富准备是否充足。在早期的研究中，我们发现，出生于1931年至1941年的HRS人群在1992年绝大多数情况下都有必要的退休资源来维持他们习惯的生活水平。然而，一个关键的悬而未决的问题是，这些结果在多大程度上适用于其他人群，特别是1941年以后出生的人群。我们提出的工作将回答这个问题。公共卫生相关性：我们提出了新的基本分析的核心因素，以了解美国人的生活水平在退休前。财富与健康之间有着充分的关联。了解与财富积累相关的因素可能会提高对健康与财富关系的理解。此外，消费和健康是老年家庭福祉的基本投入。我们的工作将提供新的模型和实证工作的因素影响消费，因此，福祉。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Project Summary and Abstract: This project is designed to provide new information on the degree to which American households are financially well-prepared for retirement. We rely on an augmented life-cycle model, modified to incorporate essential aspects of the various pieces of the problems that we study, to conduct our work. We focus on two factors that the literature (and we) believe are important influences on the wealth available for retirement. First, despite a vast literature relying on the life-cycle model to examine wealth accumulation, few papers focus on the role of children. Our work will highlight the role children play in wealth accumulation. In doing so, we compare the effects of children on wealth to the effects if asset- and income-tested transfers on wealth. Our work also has potentially important implications for thinking about Social Security replacement rates. Second, we will examine the role of pensions on non-pension wealth accumulation. While a large prior literature examines this topic, our work differs by accounting fully for lifetime (past and future) resources. More importantly, past estimates of the effects of pensions on non-pension wealth accumulation are difficult to interpret if there is a mixture of credit constrained and unconstrained households in the samples used for estimation. We clarify these issues and offer a new way of thinking about the effects of pensions on wealth accumulation. Our third proposed project will examine the way in which wealth interacts with retirement expectations and retirement. One way for some households to respond to actual or perceived shortfalls (surpluses) in retirement wealth is to defer (hasten) retirement. We will use differences between actual and optimal net worth (derived from an augmented life cycle model with uncertainty) to study the way retirement expectations and wealth are correlated with retirement decisions. We will also develop and estimate the parameters from a new model of retirement. Our fourth project will provide a comprehensive look at the adequacy of retirement wealth preparation of households in different U.S. birth cohorts. In earlier work we showed that the original HRS cohort, born between 1931 and 1941, overwhelmingly were on track in 1992 to having resources in retirement necessary to maintain their accustomed living standards. A critical unresolved issue, however, is the degree to which these results hold for other cohorts, particularly those born after 1941. Our proposed work will answer this question. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: We propose new fundamental analyses of factors central to understanding the living standards of Americans in and prior to retirement. There is a well-documented association between wealth and health. Understanding the factors associated with wealth accumulation may improve understanding of the health-wealth relationship. Moreover, consumption and health are fundamental inputs to the well-being of elderly households. Our work will provide new models and empirical work on factors influencing consumption and hence, well-being.