Identification of changing precipitation extremes and attribution to atmopsheric, oceanic and climatic changes

识别不断变化的极端降水并将其归因于大气、海洋和气候变化

• 批准号: NE/E002412/1
• 负责人: Timothy Osborn
• 金额: $ 19.69万
• 依托单位: University of East Anglia
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2007
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2007 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FE002412%2F1
• 关键词: Identification; changing; precipitation; extremes; attribution

Some of the most critical impacts of climate change will probably occur due to changes in the extremes of the hydrological cycle (droughts and floods), yet the expected changes in future precipitation and its extremes are currently quite uncertain. Scenarios of future change are derived from simulations with global and regional climate models, and our confidence in scenarios of future precipitation extremes rests on our assessment of the reliability of those models. We propose to evaluate these models by careful comparison of their simulations with observed variations in extreme precipitation events. Our comparisons will go far beyond simple comparisons of the statistics of simulated and observed events, but will in addition assess the linkages between atmospheric circulation variability (wind speeds and directions, stability, convergence and uplift), atmospheric humidity, and resulting precipitation extremes in both models and the real world. We will then extend the assessment to consider whether including changes in greenhouse gases (and other external climate influences) in the model simulations improves the agreement with changes detected in the observational data.

气候变化的一些最严重影响可能是由于水文循环的极端情况（干旱和洪水）的变化而发生的，但未来降水及其极端情况的预期变化目前还很不确定。未来变化的情景来自全球和区域气候模型的模拟，我们对未来极端降水情景的信心取决于我们对这些模型可靠性的评估。我们建议评估这些模型的模拟与观测到的极端降水事件的变化进行仔细比较。我们的比较将远远超出模拟和观测事件的统计数据的简单比较，但将另外评估大气环流变化（风速和方向，稳定性，收敛和隆起），大气湿度之间的联系，并在两个模型和真实的世界所产生的降水极端。然后，我们将扩展评估，考虑在模型模拟中包括温室气体（和其他外部气候影响）的变化是否会提高与观测数据中检测到的变化的一致性。

项目成果

Modelling seasonality in extreme precipitation A UK case study

模拟极端降水的季节性英国案例研究

• DOI: 10.1140/epjst/e2009-01093-7
• 发表时间: 2009
• 期刊: The European Physical Journal Special Topics
• 作者: Rust H

Reply by Tim Osborn

蒂姆·奥斯本 回复

• DOI: 10.1002/wea.339
• 发表时间: 2008
• 期刊: Weather
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: Osborn T

Coping with climate change: risk and opportunities for insurers

应对气候变化：保险公司的风险和机遇

• 发表时间: 2009
• 作者: Agnew M, Goodess C, Jones P;Osborn T
• 通讯作者: Osborn T

The annual cycle of heavy precipitation across the United Kingdom: a model based on extreme value statistics

• DOI: 10.1002/joc.1811
• 发表时间: 2009-10-01
• 期刊: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
• 作者: Maraun, D.;Rust, H. W.;Osborn, T. J.
• 通讯作者: Osborn, T. J.

The influence of synoptic airflow on UK daily precipitation extremes. Part I: Observed spatio-temporal relationships

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-009-0710-9
• 发表时间: 2009
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: D. Maraun;T. Osborn;H. Rust