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An integrated data-model study of interactions between tropical monsoons and extra-tropical climate variability and extremes (INTEGRATE)

热带季风与温带气候变率和极端事件之间相互作用的综合数据模型研究（INTEGRATE）

基本信息

批准号：
NE/P006809/1
负责人：
Timothy Osborn
金额：
$ 45.99万
依托单位：
University of East Anglia
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2016
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2016 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FP006809%2F1
关键词：
integrated data model study interactions

项目摘要

In order to predict the evolution of inter-regional linkages this century, it is crucial to understand how they have evolved in the past. This is particularly important because extremes such as drought are modulated by decadal variability. Our study is motivated by recent identification of multidecadal links between 2000-year reconstructions of Tibetan Plateau precipitation and Northern Hemisphere temperature. We will go far beyond this initial finding by combining insights gained from coupled climate models and observations (instrumental, tree-ring and documentary records) to identify large-scale modes that link the variability of tropical monsoons and northern extratropical climates on multiple timescales. We will (i) better understand the teleconnections between monsoon and extratropical regions (with particular emphasis on the Arctic), (ii) evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce observed behaviour including regional extremes, (iii) explore mechanisms that drive the observed behaviour and understand how the linkages may evolve under future climate change using simulations with a hierarchy of models. Paleoclimate records, including temperature-sensitive tree-ring records from the Eurasian Arctic and precipitation-sensitive series from the Asian monsoon regions provide a unique opportunity to identify associations on annual to multidecadal timescales. CMIP5 and CMIP6 "control" and "last millennium" runs will be used to assess simulated unforced variability and response to forcings such as volcanoes and to consider sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with periods of extremes in the monsoon, extratropical and Arctic regions. New simulations with imposed anomalies (e.g. sea or land surface temperatures in particular regions) in conjunction with external forcing will be designed to explore the roles of basin-wide changes or land-surface interactions in generating and synchronising decadal variability. Implications for future climate change will be considered using model simulations and our improved understanding of mechanisms.

为了预测本世纪区域间联系的演变，关键是要了解它们在过去是如何演变的。这一点特别重要，因为干旱等极端事件受到十年变化的影响。我们的研究是由最近确定的2000年重建的青藏高原降水和北方半球温度之间的几十年的联系。我们将远远超出这一初步发现，结合从耦合气候模式和观测（仪器，树木年轮和文献记录）获得的见解，以确定大尺度模式，连接热带季风和北方温带气候的变化在多个时间尺度上。我们将（i）更好地了解季风和热带以外地区（特别是北极）之间的遥相关，（ii）评估气候模型再现观测行为（包括区域极端事件）的能力，（iii）探索驱动观测行为的机制，并了解使用模型层次模拟在未来气候变化下联系可能如何演变。古气候记录，包括欧亚北极地区的温度敏感的树木年轮记录和亚洲季风区的降水敏感系列，提供了一个独特的机会，以确定每年到几十年的时间尺度上的关联。CMIP 5和CMIP 6“控制”和“上个千年”运行将用于评估模拟的非强迫变率和对火山等强迫的反应，并考虑与季风、热带风暴和北极地区极端时期有关的海面温度和大气环流模式。新的模拟与强加的异常（如海洋或陆地表面温度在特定地区）结合外部强迫将被设计为探索在产生和同步十年变化的盆地范围内的变化或陆地表面的相互作用的作用。未来气候变化的影响将考虑使用模型模拟和我们的机制的更好的理解。

项目成果

期刊论文数量（10）

专著数量（0）

科研奖励数量（0）

会议论文数量（0）

专利数量（0）

Response of South and East Asian summer climate to North Atlantic SST anomalies: sensitivity to SST patterns

南亚和东亚夏季气候对北大西洋海温异常的响应：对海温模式的敏感性

DOI：
10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-2414
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
0
作者：
Bishoyi Ratna S
通讯作者：
Bishoyi Ratna S

Ranking of tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions of the past millennium

DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.106074
发表时间：
2019-04
期刊：
Quaternary Science Reviews
影响因子：
4
作者：
F. Ljungqvist;Alma Piermattei;A. Seim;P. Krusic;U. Büntgen;M. He;A. Kirdyanov;J. Luterbacher
通讯作者：
F. Ljungqvist;Alma Piermattei;A. Seim;P. Krusic;U. Büntgen;M. He;A. Kirdyanov;J. Luterbacher

Evaluation of AMIP-type atmospheric fields as forcing for Mediterranean Sea and global ocean re-analyses

AMIP 型大气场作为地中海和全球海洋再分析强迫的评估