Present and Future Stability of Larsen C Ice Shelf (SOLIS)

拉森 C 冰架 (SOLIS) 现在和未来的稳定性

基本信息

  • 批准号:
    NE/E013414/1
  • 负责人:
  • 金额:
    $ 1.59万
  • 依托单位:
  • 依托单位国家:
    英国
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助国家:
    英国
  • 起止时间:
    2008 至 无数据
  • 项目状态:
    已结题

项目摘要

The widely publicised rapid disintegrations of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula in 1995 and 2002 were extraordinary demonstrations of the dramatic impact that climatic changes can have on this region. Ice shelf break-up is of particular scientific and public concern for two main reasons: [a] Ice shelves are sustained principally by inflow of ice from glaciers and ice streams (confined, fast-flowing 'conveyor belts' that transport ice from the interior of ice sheets to their margins). As the buttressing force is removed as a result of ice shelf collapse, these glaciers and ice streams can speed up and thus increase discharge from the ice sheet interior to the ocean. This could potentially lead to rapid and sustained shrinkage of these ice sheets and an equally dramatic increase in sea level. [b] In addition to accelerated input of cold melt water as a result of [a], ice shelf disintegration may also lead to modification of regional patterns of ocean circulation and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). AABW is an important contributor to the global ocean circulation which in turn regulates world-wide climate. If modification of AABW formation can trigger changes in this circulation, ice shelf collapse could indirectly contribute to alterations of world-wide climate patterns. If rates of climatic warming on the Antarctic Peninsula continue to be anomalously high (presently ~ 4 degrees C per century), the stability of the remaining ice shelves in this region comes into question. Larsen C, as the largest ice shelf on the Antarctic Peninsula and the southern neighbour of Larsen B which collapsed in 2002, has thinned progressively over the past 15 years. This could indicate that the Larsen C ice shelf has already entered a process of retreat or possibly collapse. If the ice shelf were to disintegrate (even partially), it is likely that more shelf ice would be lost in this single incident than has been lost by all previous incidents on the Antarctic Peninsula taken together. The key question is therefore: Is the Larsen C ice shelf likely to collapse in the future? The proposed project aims to answer that question. The stability of an ice shelf is controlled by a range of ice-internal controls, including [a] ice composition and structure; [b] the balance between stress intensity (acting as a de-stabilising force) and ice fracture toughness (the ability of ice to resist stress, thus acting as a stabilising force); and [c] patterns and processes of rifting. Climatic changes can force the internal controls not only directly but also indirectly via a range of external controls (mass balance and thus total ice shelf thickness; ice shelf geometry; oceanographic and sea ice processes; meteorology). In characterising the internal controls and modelling direct and indirect (via the external controls) forcing by climatic conditions, we propose to adopt a three-tier strategy: [a] field-based investigations using standard geophysical methods as the core activity of the project providing the required ground control; [b] upscaling of the field data to the whole ice shelf using established remote sensing techniques; and [c] forcing of an adapted computer model (previously applied successfully to the Filchner-Ronne and Larsen B ice shelves) using the upscaled data. The model outputs will allow [a] identification of how stable the Larsen C ice shelf is at present; [b] simulation of a range of future scenarios including rapid ice shelf retreat or disintegration; and [c] identification of the most realistic future scenario. This will enable us to conclude whether the Larsen C ice shelf is likely to collapse in the future.
1995年和2002年,南极半岛拉森A和B冰架的迅速解体被广泛报道,这是气候变化可能对该地区产生巨大影响的非凡证明。冰架破裂是科学界和公众特别关注的问题,主要有两个原因:[a]冰架主要由冰川和冰流(将冰从冰盖内部运送到边缘的封闭、快速流动的“传送带”)的冰流入维持。由于冰架崩塌,支撑力被移除,这些冰川和冰流可以加速,从而增加从冰盖内部向海洋的排放。这可能会导致这些冰盖的快速和持续收缩,以及海平面的急剧上升。[b]除了[a]导致的冷融水加速输入外,冰架解体还可能导致海洋环流区域模式的改变和南极底层水(AABW)的形成。AABW是全球海洋环流的重要贡献者,反过来又调节了全球气候。如果AABW形成的改变可以触发这种环流的变化,那么冰架崩溃可能间接地导致全球气候模式的改变。如果南极半岛的气候变暖速度继续保持在惊人的高水平(目前每世纪约4摄氏度),该地区剩余冰架的稳定性就会受到质疑。Larsen C是南极半岛上最大的冰架,也是2002年崩塌的Larsen B的南邻,在过去15年中逐渐变薄。这可能表明拉森C冰架已经进入了退缩或可能崩溃的过程。如果冰架解体(即使是部分解体),那么在这一次事故中失去的冰架冰很可能比南极半岛以前所有事故的总和还要多。因此,关键的问题是:拉森C冰架在未来可能崩溃吗?拟议的项目旨在回答这个问题。冰架的稳定性受一系列冰的内部控制因素的控制,包括:[a]冰的组成和结构; [B]应力强度(作为去稳定力)和冰的断裂韧性(冰抵抗应力的能力,从而作为稳定力)之间的平衡;[c]断裂的模式和过程。气候变化不仅可以直接影响内部控制,还可以通过一系列外部控制(物质平衡和冰架总厚度;冰架几何形状;海洋学和海冰过程;气象学)间接影响内部控制。在描述内部控制和建模时,(通过外部控制)受气候条件的影响,我们建议采取三层战略:[a]使用标准地球物理方法进行实地调查,作为提供所需地面控制的项目核心活动; [B]使用现有遥感技术将实地数据扩大到整个冰架;以及[c]使用放大的数据强迫一个经过调整的计算机模型(以前成功地应用于Filchner-Ronne和Larsen B冰架)。模型输出将允许:[a]确定拉森C冰架目前的稳定程度; [B]模拟一系列未来情景,包括冰架快速退缩或解体;[c]确定最现实的未来情景。这将使我们能够得出结论,拉森C冰架是否有可能在未来崩溃。

项目成果

期刊论文数量(10)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
An updated seabed bathymetry beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
南极半岛拉森 C 冰架下更新的海底测深
  • DOI:
    10.5194/essd-12-887-2020
  • 发表时间:
    2020
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    11.4
  • 作者:
    Brisbourne A
  • 通讯作者:
    Brisbourne A
Supplementary material to "An updated seabed bathymetry beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf, west Antarctic"
补充材料
  • DOI:
    10.5194/essd-2019-205-supplement
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Brisbourne A
  • 通讯作者:
    Brisbourne A
Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica
  • DOI:
    10.1017/aog.2017.1
  • 发表时间:
    2017-04
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2.9
  • 作者:
    Michael Chester;B. Kulessa;A. Luckman;J. Bassis;P. K. Munneke
  • 通讯作者:
    Michael Chester;B. Kulessa;A. Luckman;J. Bassis;P. K. Munneke
Present stability of the Larsen C ice shelf, Antarctic Peninsula
  • DOI:
    10.3189/002214310793146223
  • 发表时间:
    2010-01-01
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    3.4
  • 作者:
    Jansen, D.;Kulessa, B.;Glasser, N. F.
  • 通讯作者:
    Glasser, N. F.
An updated seabed bathymetry beneath Larsen C Ice Shelf, west Antarctic
南极西部拉森 C 冰架下方更新的海底测深
  • DOI:
    10.5194/essd-2019-205
  • 发表时间:
    2019
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    0
  • 作者:
    Brisbourne A
  • 通讯作者:
    Brisbourne A
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Bernd Kulessa其他文献

Improved imaging of ground deformation and brine seepage around abandoned flooded salt mines by joint inversion of multiphysics data
通过多物理场数据联合反演改进废弃水淹盐矿周围地面变形和盐水渗漏的成像
  • DOI:
  • 发表时间:
    2023
  • 期刊:
  • 影响因子:
    2
  • 作者:
    Max A. Meju;Bernd Kulessa;Luis Gallardo;Sarah Thompson;Alastair Ruffell;Kieran Parker
  • 通讯作者:
    Kieran Parker

Bernd Kulessa的其他文献

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{{ truncateString('Bernd Kulessa', 18)}}的其他基金

Impact of deep subglacial groundwater on ice stream flow in West Antarctica (IGIS)
冰下深层地下水对南极洲西部冰流的影响(IGIS)
  • 批准号:
    NE/R010838/1
  • 财政年份:
    2021
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.59万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
GHOST (Geophysical Habitats of Subglacial Thwaites)
GHOST(冰下思韦特的地球物理栖息地)
  • 批准号:
    NE/S006621/1
  • 财政年份:
    2018
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.59万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Seismic characterisation of subglacial conditions beneath the margin of the West Greenland Ice Sheet
西格陵兰冰盖边缘冰下条件的地震特征
  • 批准号:
    NE/H012869/1
  • 财政年份:
    2010
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.59万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Investigating the Dynamic Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Climate Forcing using a Geophysical, Remote-Sensing and Numerical Modelling Framework
使用地球物理、遥感和数值模拟框架研究格陵兰冰盖对气候强迫的动态响应
  • 批准号:
    NE/G007195/1
  • 财政年份:
    2009
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.59万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant
Present and Future Stability of Larsen C Ice Shelf (SOLIS)
拉森 C 冰架 (SOLIS) 现在和未来的稳定性
  • 批准号:
    NE/E012914/1
  • 财政年份:
    2008
  • 资助金额:
    $ 1.59万
  • 项目类别:
    Research Grant

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