The application of COAPEC research to improve seasonal forecasts

COAPEC(海洋-大气耦合过程和欧洲气候)方案始于1999年，将于2006年结束。它代表了国家环境研究中心大约550万GB的投资，目的是确定大西洋和大气之间的耦合对气候，特别是欧洲气候的影响。该方案非常成功，出版了许多高质量的出版物(例如，2006年7月19日《气候杂志》特刊)。现在，重要的是要确保取得成功，以最大限度地发挥其更广泛的影响。COAPEC研究的一个主要应用是季节性气候预测。季节性预报是一项尖端技术，它有可能提前几个月提供不同天气条件的可能性信息。英国气象局是发展季节性预报的先驱，并在2005年年中发布了有史以来最早的欧洲冬季预报之一。这一预测引起了政府部门(如内阁办公室、运输国务秘书、能源部长)和商业部门(特别是能源行业)的广泛用户的极大兴趣。这个项目的目的是与气象局合作，将亚太经合组织的研究成果转化为气象局季节性预报系统的具体改进。该项目将由气象局提供50%的资金，将涉及：对现有预报系统的评价；评估关键过程的代表性的试验；对该系统进行具体修改的执行情况；以及对所获得的效益的评价。

The COAPEC (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Processes and European Climate) programme began in 1999 and will end in 2006. It represents an investment by NERC of some £5.5million with the goal of determining the impact on climate, especially European climate, of the coupling between the Atlantic Ocean and the atmosphere. The programme has been very successful, producing many high quality publications (e.g. special issue in Journal of Climate, 19, 7, 2006). It is now important to ensure pull-through to maximise its wider impacts.A major application of COAPEC research is to seasonal climate forecasting. Seasonal forecasting is a cutting-edge technology which offers the potential to provide information about the likelihood of different weather conditions months in advance. The Met Office has been a pioneer in the development of seasonal forecasting and, in mid-2005, issued one of the first ever forecasts for European winter. This forecast attracted a great deal of interest from a wide range of users both in government (e.g. Cabinet Office, Secretary of State for Transport, Energy Minister) and in the commercial sector (especially the energy industry). This interest was a powerful demonstration of user need.The purpose of this project is to work with the Met Office to translate the outcomes of COAPEC research into specific improvements of the Met Office's seasonal forecasting system. The project, which will be 50% funded by the Met Office, will involve: evaluation of the existing forecasting system; experimentation to assess the representation of critical processes; implementation of specific changes to the system; and evaluation of the benefits gained.