Exploitation of HiGEM as a tool for understanding decadal climate variability and for predicting the climate of the next few decades.

地球气候正在变化这一事实现在已被广泛接受；人们才刚刚开始了解这一事实的后果。气候变化将产生非常广泛的影响——例如，对水资源、农业、生态系统和经济。如果规划者想要将这些影响的成本降到最低，他们需要详细的信息，了解气候将如何在区域和地方发生变化，尤其是在未来几十年。提供这些信息对科学家来说是一个重大挑战。该方案将利用英国新的气候模型HiGEM来应对这一挑战，该模型提供了前所未有的空间细节。它将调查由HiGEM模式预测的气候变化与提供较少细节的简单模式所建议的气候变化有何不同。它还将研究如何将对最近变化的观测与气候模式结合起来，以获得可能的最佳预测。

The fact that Earth's climate is changing is now widely accepted; the consequences of this fact are only just beginning to be understood. The changing climate will have a very wide range of impacts - for example, on water resources, on agriculture, on ecosystems and economies. If planners are to minimise the costs of these impacts they require detailed information about how climate will change regionally and locally, especially over the next few decades. Providing this information is a major challenge to scientists. This proposal will address this challenge by making use of a new UK climate model, HiGEM, which provides unprecedented spatial detail. It will investigate how the changes in climate projected by the HiGEM model differ from those suggested by simpler models that provide less detail. It will also examine how observations of recent changes can be used in conjunction with climate models to obtain the best possible predictions.