A hybrid model for predicting the probablity of very extreme rainfall

预测极端降雨概率的混合模型

• 批准号: NE/F011822/1
• 负责人: Ralf Toumi
• 金额: $ 26.06万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2008 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=NE%2FF011822%2F1
• 关键词: hybrid; model; predicting; probablity; very

A hybrid physical-statistical model for very extreme rainfall statistics will be crtically examined. This model will be tested against mesoscale model simulations and its limitations explored numerically. In particular two hypotheses will be examined. The first hypotheis is that regional simulations of very extreme rainfall are consistent with the proposed hybrid model. The second hypothisis is that the hybrid model is suitable for finite time periods and can be adjusted for non-stationary parameters.

我们将对极端降雨量统计的混合物理统计模型进行严格的检验。该模式将与中尺度模式模拟进行对比测试，并从数值上探讨其局限性。特别是，我们将检验两个假设。第一个假设是，非常极端降雨的区域模拟与所提出的混合模式是一致的。第二个假设是，混合模型适用于有限的时间周期，并且可以对非平稳参数进行调整。