Risk for Future Outbreaks of Henipaviruses in South Asia

描述（由申请人提供）：许多新出现的疾病是由人畜共患病原体引起的，这些病原体随着人口、行为或环境的变化从野生动物宿主溢出到人类。兽医可以为新出现的人畜共患病的研究提供重要的投入，但缺乏专门的培训计划。拟议的培训计划将提供致命人畜共患病的分子和血清学诊断技术以及疾病动力学的数学建模方面的多学科培训。尼帕病毒是最近发现的一种致命的C类潜在生物恐怖病原体，在人类中病死率为40 - 79%，目前没有疫苗，也没有经临床证实的治疗方法。在亚洲和澳大利亚，果蝠（狐蝠属）已被确定为新冠病毒和相关病毒的天然宿主。自2001年以来，NiV在孟加拉国引起了五次公认的疫情，在印度引起了一次疫情。与病毒首次出现的马来西亚不同，孟加拉国没有发现中间动物宿主，而且有证据表明存在蝙蝠与人之间的直接传播和人与人之间的传播。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Many emerging diseases are caused by zoonotic pathogens which spillover from wildlife reservoirs to humans following changes in demography, behavior or environment. Veterinarians can provide important input into research on emerging zoonoses, but specific training programs for these are lacking. The proposed training program will provide multidisciplinary training in molecular and serological diagnostic techniques and mathematical modeling of disease dynamics of a lethal zoonosis. Nipah virus (NiV) is a recently discovered, lethal, Class C potential bioterror pathogen with a case fatality rate of 40 - 79% in humans and for which no vaccines, nor clinically-proven therapies exist. Fruit bats (Pteropus spp.), have been identified as the natural reservoir for NiV and related viruses in Asia and Australia. Since 2001, NiV has caused five recognized outbreaks in Bangladesh and one in India. In contrast to Malaysia, where the virus first emerged, no intermediate animal host has been identified in Bangladesh, and there is evidence of direct bat-to-human transmission and person-to-person transmission. The specific aims of this proposal are to: 1) Examine the distribution of NiV in flying foxes (Pteropus giganteus) in Bangladesh and bat migration among colonies by catching and testing bats for NiV using serological and molecular techniques, and satellite telemetry; 2) Test the hypothesis that seasonal NiV outbreaks in Bangladesh correspond to seasonal spikes in viral prevalence in fruit bat reservoirs during pregnancy and synchronous birthing, by conducting a longitudinal study within a bat colony in an area adjacent to a human NiV outbreak; and 3) Develop a parameterized predictive model for Nipah virus emergence in Bangladesh using data from this research to inform the model. I will co-analyse human epidemiological data with bat transmission data to identify specific temporal, spatial and contact risks for NiV spillover. Results from this study can be used to inform public health policy for the prevention of Nipah virus outbreaks. Ultimately, I hope to create a model for identifying "hotspots" of high risk for NiV outbreaks in Bangladesh which can then be extrapolated to other countries where fruit bats occur such as India. This training program will provide a unique opportunity to develop my skills as a veterinary epidemiologist so that I can design and lead future research on the causes of zoonotic disease emergence.