Risk for Future Outbreaks of Henipaviruses in South Asia

描述（由申请人提供）：许多新发疾病是由人畜共患病病原体引起的，这些病原体在人口统计学、行为或环境变化后从野生动物宿主溢出到人类。兽医可以为新出现的人畜共患病的研究提供重要的投入，但缺乏针对这些疾病的具体培训计划。拟议的培训计划将提供分子和血清学诊断技术以及致命人畜共患病疾病动力学数学建模方面的多学科培训。尼帕病毒（NiV）是最近发现的致命的C类潜在生物恐怖病原体，在人类中的病死率为40 - 79%，并且没有疫苗，也没有临床证明的疗法。果蝠（狐蝠属），已被确定为亚洲和澳大利亚NiV和相关病毒的天然储存库。自2001年以来，NIV在孟加拉国造成了五次公认的疫情，在印度造成了一次疫情。与病毒首次出现的马来西亚不同，孟加拉国没有发现中间动物宿主，有证据表明蝙蝠直接传播给人类和人传人。 本提案的具体目的是：1）检查NiV在飞狐中的分布（Pteropus arterteus）和蝙蝠在殖民地之间的迁移，方法是利用血清学和分子技术以及卫星遥测技术捕捉蝙蝠并检测其是否感染尼氏病毒; 2）检验孟加拉国季节性NiV爆发对应于果蝠水库在怀孕和同步分娩期间病毒流行的季节性高峰的假设，通过在人类尼帕病毒爆发附近地区的蝙蝠群体内进行纵向研究;以及3）使用本研究的数据为孟加拉国尼帕病毒出现建立参数化预测模型。我将共同分析人类流行病学数据和蝙蝠传播数据，以确定NiV溢出的特定时间，空间和接触风险。 这项研究的结果可用于为预防尼帕病毒爆发的公共卫生政策提供信息。最终，我希望创建一个模型，用于识别孟加拉国NiV爆发的高风险“热点”，然后可以将其外推到其他果蝠发生的国家，如印度。这个培训计划将提供一个独特的机会，发展我作为兽医流行病学家的技能，使我能够设计和领导未来的人畜共患病出现的原因的研究。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Many emerging diseases are caused by zoonotic pathogens which spillover from wildlife reservoirs to humans following changes in demography, behavior or environment. Veterinarians can provide important input into research on emerging zoonoses, but specific training programs for these are lacking. The proposed training program will provide multidisciplinary training in molecular and serological diagnostic techniques and mathematical modeling of disease dynamics of a lethal zoonosis. Nipah virus (NiV) is a recently discovered, lethal, Class C potential bioterror pathogen with a case fatality rate of 40 - 79% in humans and for which no vaccines, nor clinically-proven therapies exist. Fruit bats (Pteropus spp.), have been identified as the natural reservoir for NiV and related viruses in Asia and Australia. Since 2001, NiV has caused five recognized outbreaks in Bangladesh and one in India. In contrast to Malaysia, where the virus first emerged, no intermediate animal host has been identified in Bangladesh, and there is evidence of direct bat-to-human transmission and person-to-person transmission. The specific aims of this proposal are to: 1) Examine the distribution of NiV in flying foxes (Pteropus giganteus) in Bangladesh and bat migration among colonies by catching and testing bats for NiV using serological and molecular techniques, and satellite telemetry; 2) Test the hypothesis that seasonal NiV outbreaks in Bangladesh correspond to seasonal spikes in viral prevalence in fruit bat reservoirs during pregnancy and synchronous birthing, by conducting a longitudinal study within a bat colony in an area adjacent to a human NiV outbreak; and 3) Develop a parameterized predictive model for Nipah virus emergence in Bangladesh using data from this research to inform the model. I will co-analyse human epidemiological data with bat transmission data to identify specific temporal, spatial and contact risks for NiV spillover. Results from this study can be used to inform public health policy for the prevention of Nipah virus outbreaks. Ultimately, I hope to create a model for identifying "hotspots" of high risk for NiV outbreaks in Bangladesh which can then be extrapolated to other countries where fruit bats occur such as India. This training program will provide a unique opportunity to develop my skills as a veterinary epidemiologist so that I can design and lead future research on the causes of zoonotic disease emergence.