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Dynamic Models of Racial Residential Segregation

种族居住隔离的动态模型

基本信息

批准号：
8135351
负责人：
Elizabeth Eve Bruch
金额：
$ 15.38万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2010
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2010-09-01 至 2013-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This proposal outlines a plan of research to better understand the causes of racial residential segregation in American cities. Racial residential segregation contributes to the formation of high-poverty neighborhoods and has been implicated as an important source of enduring racial health disparities (e.g., Mechanic 2007). Yet social scientists do not know what forces contribute to maintaining residential racial segregation, what the respective importance of these forces are, or how these forces combine. Two obstacles limit accumulation of causal knowledge in this research area. First, we lack a plausible model of how individual demographic factors and neighborhood characteristics simultaneously affect individual mobility decisions. Second, most past research measures potential explanatory factors at the individual or intermediary (e.g., real-estate agents or lenders) level, but do not represent how those factors affect neighborhood racial composition in the aggregate. Our project addresses these problems through a discrete choice statistical model of residential choice and an agent-based simulation of neighborhood formation. The discrete choice models are estimated using the data on residential mobility from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics matched with data from the Decennial Censuses. Our basic model of residential mobility incorporates race and neighborhood racial composition, income and neighborhood housing cost, neighborhood income composition, housing tenure (owning or renting), and household composition; proposed extensions to the model incorporate family wealth, mobility impacts of nearby neighborhood changes, and housing market discrimination. The agent-based model creates simulated cities with the demography, geography, and housing stock of actual urban areas in which household mobility is governed by behavioral rules estimated in the discrete choice model. Taken together, this framework can be used to address questions regarding how preferences for race of neighbors, affordability constraints, housing market discrimination, and metropolitan population composition affect racial segregation. The model can also be used to explore the effects of spatially targeted housing policies on residential segregation, like the demolition of distressed public housing under Hope VI legislation. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Racial residential segregation contributes to the formation of high-poverty neighborhoods and has been implicated as an important source of enduring racial health disparities (e.g., Mechanic 2007). One strategy for reducing health disparities among racial groups, particularly among blacks and whites, would be to reduce racial residential segregation and the corresponding geographic concentration of poverty. The proposed research aims to provide a better understanding of the causes of segregation, suggest solutions for reducing neighborhood racial segregation, and develop new analytical and technical tools for modeling dynamic processes in scientific research.

描述（由申请人提供）：本提案概述了一项研究计划，以更好地了解美国城市种族居住隔离的原因。种族居住隔离有助于形成高贫困社区，并被认为是持久的种族健康差异的重要来源（例如，机械师2007）。然而，社会科学家并不知道是什么力量促成了住宅种族隔离的维持，这些力量各自的重要性是什么，或者这些力量是如何联合收割机的。两个障碍限制了因果知识在这一研究领域的积累。首先，我们缺乏一个合理的模型，如何个人人口因素和邻里特征同时影响个人的流动性决策。其次，过去的大多数研究都是在个人或中介机构（例如，房地产经纪人或贷款人）的水平，但并不代表这些因素如何影响社区的种族构成的总和。我们的项目解决这些问题，通过一个离散的选择统计模型的住宅选择和基于代理的模拟邻里形成。离散选择模型是使用收入动态小组研究的居民流动性数据与十年一次的人口普查数据相匹配来估计的。我们的基本模型的住宅流动性，包括种族和邻里种族组成，收入和邻里的住房成本，邻里收入组成，住房保有权（拥有或租用），和家庭组成;建议的扩展模型纳入家庭财富，流动性的影响，附近的邻里变化，和住房市场的歧视。基于代理的模型创建模拟城市的人口，地理和住房存量的实际城市地区，其中家庭的流动性是由离散选择模型中估计的行为规则。两者合计，这个框架可以用来解决的问题，如何对邻居的种族偏好，负担能力的限制，住房市场的歧视，和大都市的人口构成影响种族隔离。该模型也可以用来探讨空间有针对性的住房政策对居住隔离的影响，如希望六立法下的破旧公共住房的拆除。公共卫生相关性：种族居住隔离有助于形成高贫困社区，并被认为是持久的种族健康差异的重要来源（例如，机械师2007）。减少种族群体之间，特别是黑人和白人之间的健康差距的一项战略是减少种族居住隔离和相应的贫困地理集中。拟议的研究旨在更好地了解种族隔离的原因，提出减少邻里种族隔离的解决方案，并开发新的分析和技术工具，用于模拟科学研究中的动态过程。