The Spatiotemporal Anatomy of Seasonal Influenza in the United States, 1968

1968 年美国季节性流感的时空解剖

• 批准号: 8262083
• 负责人: Bianca Malcolm
• 金额: $ 3.6万
• 依托单位: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2011-09-30 至 2012-09-29
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8262083
• 关键词: Spatiotemporal; Anatomy; Seasonal; Influenza; United

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Seasonality has a major effect on the spatiotemporal dynamics of natural systems and their populations and is the driving force behind the transmission of influenza in temperate regions. Although the seasonality of influenza in temperate countries is widely recognized, inter-regional spread of influenza in the United States have not been well characterized. This research will study the seasonality of influenza throughout the United States by using weekly pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality to model inter-region and inter-city movement of seasonal influenza in the United States between 1968 and 2007. This project aims to identify the underlying wave of seasonal influenza spread in the United States and the dependence of the timing and spread of influenza on the dominant circulating influenza type or subtype in a given influenza season. This goal will be achieved by accomplishing the following aims: 1) identifying the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in the U.S. from 1968 to 2007, 2) comparing the spatial and temporal patterns of seasonal influenza in the U.S. by dominant type or subtype of influenza, 3) identifying source locations of influenza transmission in the U.S., 4) and determining the dominant spreading process of seasonal influenza in the U.S. Average time to death from P&I will be used to determine the epidemic timing and direction of wave progression for each influenza season. It will also be used to identify seed locations for influenza transmission and assess the velocity of wave progression. Ordinary least squares will be used in order to develop linear trend surfaces for each influenza season and to depict the main trend in the spatial progression of each influenza season. Spatial autocorrelation will be used to detect the dominant spreading process of seasonal influenza in the U.S. (e.g. contagious, hierarchical, or mixed process). In addition, the average time seasonal influenza takes to spread across the United States and the average time between regional peak and national peak by dominant influenza subtype and season will be determined. Identifying spatiotemporal patterns could improve epidemic prediction and prevention. This research will determine the spatial and temporal characteristics of seasonal influenza in the U.S. and show if these characteristics differ by dominant influenza sub-type. Accomplishing this research will greatly aid public health professionals in refining influenza intervention strategies that include better placement and distribution of vaccines and other medicines. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The completion of the proposed research has broad application for the planning of intervention strategies for pandemic and epidemic influenza in the U.S. Knowledge of the timing and spatial spread of influenza could severely limit the morbidity and mortality associated with epidemic influenza, as well as with a future pandemic. The knowledge gained as a result of this dissertation will allow public health officials to refine currnt influenza intervention strategies in order to more effectively and efficiently utilize influenza interventions.

描述（由申请人提供）：季节性对自然系统及其种群的时空动态有重大影响，是温带地区流感传播的驱动力。虽然温带国家流感的季节性已被广泛认可，但美国流感的区域间传播尚未得到很好的表征。这项研究将通过使用每周肺炎和流感（P&I）死亡率来模拟1968年至2007年期间美国季节性流感的地区间和城市间流动，研究美国流感的季节性。该项目旨在确定美国季节性流感传播的潜在浪潮，以及流感的时间和传播对给定流感季节中主要流行流感类型或亚型的依赖性。这一目标将通过实现以下目标来实现：1）确定1968年至2007年美国季节性流感的空间和时间模式，2）通过流感的主要类型或亚型比较美国季节性流感的空间和时间模式，3）确定美国流感传播的源位置，4)并确定美国季节性流感的主要传播过程。P&I的平均死亡时间将用于确定每个流感季节的流行时间和波进展方向。它还将用于确定流感传播的种子位置，并评估波传播的速度。将使用普通最小二乘法绘制每个流感季节的线性趋势面，并描述每个流感季节空间进展的主要趋势。空间自相关将用于检测美国季节性流感的主要传播过程（例如，传染性，分层或混合过程）。此外，还将确定季节性流感在美国传播的平均时间，以及按主要流感亚型和季节划分的地区高峰和全国高峰之间的平均时间。识别时空模式可以改善流行病的预测和预防。这项研究将确定美国季节性流感的空间和时间特征，并显示这些特征是否因主要流感亚型而异。完成这项研究将极大地帮助公共卫生专业人员完善流感干预策略，包括更好地放置和分发疫苗和其他药物。 公共卫生关系：完成拟议的研究有广泛的应用规划的大流行和流行性流感在美国的时间和空间传播的流感的干预策略，可以严重限制与流行性流感，以及与未来的大流行的发病率和死亡率。本论文所获得的知识将使公共卫生官员能够改进当前的流感干预策略，以便更有效地利用流感干预措施。