The effect of the 1918 influenza pandemic on seasonal influenza in the U.S.

1918 年流感大流行对美国季节性流感的影响

• 批准号: 7754763
• 负责人: Bianca Malcolm
• 金额: $ 2.77万
• 依托单位: COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY HEALTH SCIENCES
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2009-09-01 至 2011-08-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7754763
• 关键词: Affect; Bioterrorism; Cessation of life; Cities; Communicable Diseases; Communication; Communities; Country; Data; Data Collection; Disasters; Enteral; Epidemic; Epidemiologic Methods; Epidemiologist; Event; Fellowship; Frequencies; Future; Goals; Graduate Education; Health Professional; Influenza; Intervention; Knowledge; Maps; Methods; Modeling; Modern 1601-history; Movement; Pattern; Persons; Prevention strategy; Public Health; Readiness; Relative (related person); Reporting; Research; Research Personnel; Research Support; Role; Seasons; Source; Surface; System; Techniques; Time; Time Study; TimeLine; Training; Training Support; United States; Virus; base; career; flu transmission; influenza epidemic; innovation; killings; meetings; member; mortality; pandemic disease; pandemic influenza; practical application; public health relevance; respiratory; seasonal influenza; spatiotemporal; surveillance data; transmission process; trend; vector

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The 1918-20 influenza pandemic was the largest, most lethal epidemic in modern: history. It spread over the entire world in about six months and killed between 20 and 100 million people. Yet, despite such a devastating event, there is little detailed information on how and when the influenza epidemic spread throughout cities and countries in the world, especially the U.S. Because the last influenza pandemic was in 1968, the threat of a future pandemic looms large. It is, therefore, important for public health in the U.S. to not only understand the timing and spatial course of the 1918 pandemic, but to also understand how this great event might have affected the timing and spread of Influenza in non-pandemic seasons. This knowledge could inform targeted prevention strategies for a future pandemic. The proposed research seeks to use weekly mortality data from historical sources and lab surveillance data from the National Respiratory and Enteric Viruses Surveillance System (NREVSS) to study the timing and spread of influenza through the U.S. during pandemic and non pandemic seasons. The first aim of this research is to develop models of the temporal and spatial aspects of influenza In the U.S. for four pandemic and non-pandemic periods: the 1918- 20 pandemic, 1914-1917 Influenza seasons, 1920-1923 influenza seasons, and 1997-2007 influenza seasons. For each influenza season, the week of the first report of influenza mortality or lab confirmation will be plotted for each city and spread vectors will be constructed from this sequence of dates. Models will also be constructed by determining the average time to death or lab confirmation for each city for each season and then constructing linear trend surfaces, which will be plotted on a separate map. The direction of the wave progression will be marked by a vector on each map. The second aim of this study is to compare the time and spatial progression of the 1918 pandemic in the U.S. with those of non-pandemic years. The U.S. will be divided into nine regions to allow for easier analysis and bi-proportionate analysis will be used to compare the spatial and temporal aspects of influenza in pandemic years with those in non-pandemic years. This method will allow the analysis of the combined space-time variability in influenza in the U.S. by standardizing the relative intensity of influenza throughout the years. The completion of these aims and these methods has broad application for disaster preparedness, such as pandemic planning and bioterrorism. Knowledge of the timing and spatial course of influenza in the U.S. could severely limit the impact of a future pandemic and allow public health professionals to more effectively utilize interventions. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: I am currently pursuing the Kirschstein-NRSA Diversity Fellowship in order to be better prepared for a long and fruitful career in public health. I wish to become federal epidemiologist so that I can best help the nation's public health and scientific community refine the methods of infectious disease surveillance. I believe the Kirschstein-NRSA Diversity Fellowship will build upon my graduate education and provide me with the training and support I need to accomplish my above-stated goals and, consequently, become a significant future epidemiologist and scientific researcher. I expect that training from the Kirschstein-NRSA Fellowship will increase my practical application of epidemiologic methods and analysis and will allow me to gain new techniques, such as bi-proportionate analysis and spatial modeling. This fellowship will provide me with an opportunity to use surveillance data to develop methods that will not only better my understanding of the transmission process of Influenza In the U.S., but may also better the influenza surveillance system in the U.S. I believe the training from this fellowship will make me a more talented epidemiologist and I am confident that I would be a strong contributing member to the Kirschstein-NRSA graduate fellow and alumnus community as well as the overall public health community.

描述（由申请人提供）：1918 - 20年流感大流行是现代历史上最大、最致命的流行病。它在大约六个月内蔓延到全世界，造成2000万至1亿人死亡。然而，尽管发生了这样一场毁灭性的事件，但关于流感疫情如何以及何时在世界各地的城市和国家蔓延的详细信息很少，特别是美国。因此，美国的公共卫生不仅要了解1918年流感大流行的时间和空间过程，还要了解这一重大事件如何影响非流感大流行季节的流感时间和传播。这些知识可以为未来大流行病的有针对性的预防战略提供信息。这项拟议中的研究旨在利用历史来源的每周死亡率数据和国家呼吸道和肠道病毒监测系统（NREVSS）的实验室监测数据，研究流感在大流行和非大流行季节期间在美国的时间和传播。本研究的第一个目的是建立美国流感在四个大流行和非大流行时期的时间和空间方面的模型：1918 - 20大流行，1914 - 1917流感季节，1920 - 1923流感季节和1997 - 2007流感季节。对于每个流感季节，将绘制每个城市首次报告流感死亡率或实验室确认的那一周，并根据该日期序列构建传播向量。模型还将通过确定每个城市每个季节的死亡或实验室确认的平均时间来构建，然后构建线性趋势面，这些趋势面将绘制在单独的地图上。波浪前进的方向将在每张地图上用矢量标记。本研究的第二个目的是比较1918年美国大流行与非大流行年份的时间和空间进展。美国将被分为9个地区，以便更容易进行分析，并将使用双比例分析来比较大流行年份与非大流行年份流感的空间和时间方面。这种方法将允许通过标准化多年来流感的相对强度来分析美国流感的时空变异性。这些目标和方法的完成对备灾，如流行病规划和生物恐怖主义有广泛的应用。了解美国流感的时间和空间过程可以严重限制未来大流行的影响，并使公共卫生专业人员能够更有效地利用干预措施。公共卫生关系：我目前正在追求Kirschstein-NRSA多样性奖学金，以便更好地为公共卫生领域长期而富有成效的职业生涯做好准备。我希望成为联邦流行病学家，这样我就可以最好地帮助国家的公共卫生和科学界完善传染病监测的方法。我相信Kirschstein-NRSA多样性奖学金将建立在我的研究生教育基础上，并为我提供完成上述目标所需的培训和支持，从而成为未来重要的流行病学家和科学研究人员。我希望从Kirschstein-NRSA奖学金的培训将增加我的流行病学方法和分析的实际应用，并将使我获得新的技术，如双比例分析和空间建模。这项奖学金将为我提供一个机会，利用监测数据来开发方法，不仅可以更好地了解流感在美国的传播过程，我相信从这个奖学金的培训将使我成为一个更有才华的流行病学家，我相信，我将是一个强有力的贡献成员Kirschstein-NRSA研究生研究员和校友社区以及整个公共卫生界。