Selective Migration and the Macro Demographic Consequences of Armed Conflict

描述（由申请人提供）：本项目将调查武装冲突对宏观层面人口构成、福祉和稳定的影响。虽然宏观层面的行为者在冲突过程中的行为，如政府和非政府暴力团体，已经在文献中进行了研究，但很少有研究一般人群的作用，以及他们在武装冲突期间的行为变化如何影响冲突后社会的长期福祉和稳定，并有助于武装冲突的延续。这一差距主要是由于缺乏适当的数据和明确的方法战略来调查遭受突然和戏剧性宏观灾害的人口的微观和宏观动态。这个项目的广泛目标是促进理论和方法工具的总体发展，这些工具可用于调查灾害对宏观人口构成和福祉的一般影响。实证分析将把重点放在武装冲突上，认为这是一种可以对人口产生直接和长期影响的灾难。这个项目的首要研究问题是：冲突对人口构成和动态的直接影响是什么，冲突结束后它们在什么条件下持续存在，以及人口的初始条件如何缓和这些变化？这个项目将在尼泊尔政府和尼泊尔共产党（毛派）最近长达十年的武装冲突的背景下对这些问题进行详细的案例研究。具体而言，该项目将解决三个研究问题：(1)与冲突有关的移民如何影响宏观层面人口构成和动态的短期和长期变化，包括移民率、结婚率、生育率、城市化和人口增长率；(2)冲突相关移民在冲突后短期和长期如何影响家庭构成、福祉和家庭之间的不平等；(3)冲突相关移民在冲突后短期和长期如何影响村级人口构成和种姓空间隔离。这些问题将使用基于主体的模型和尼泊尔一项纵向研究的现有数据进行检验。作为一种新兴的分析技术，基于主体的模型在研究微观层面的行为和宏观层面的结果之间的联系以及模拟长时间的不同灾难情景方面具有巨大的前景。据我所知，它们还没有被用于灾害研究。本研究的结果将有助于理解冲突后尼泊尔关键宏观层面的人口趋势以及个人、家庭和社区的福祉。为本项目开发的理论贡献和建模工具也将适用于未来对其他冲突、自然灾害、经济危机或其他快速和戏剧性社会变革事件的研究。这个项目将借鉴我之前对尼泊尔武装冲突中移民和其他人口行为的研究，以及缓和冲突-移民关系的个人特征。我目前的博士后工作是与一个跨学科团队合作，使用基于主体的模型来研究快速的社会和环境变化对人口动态的影响，这也将提供经验，工具和关系，这将有助于我完成拟议的项目。我的主要职业目标是研究武装冲突和灾难对人口动态和人类福祉的影响。在这方面，这个奖项的目的是让我有机会学习并熟练使用基于agent的模型作为一种在灾难背景下将微观层面的行为与宏观层面的结果联系起来的技术，并了解我的研究与其他学科的交叉点和相关性。“通往独立之路”奖将帮助我实现这些目标，为我提供与北卡罗来纳大学（UNC）多个学科的顶尖科学家进行指导的机会，为我提供在北卡罗来纳大学和圣达菲研究所进行概念和方法培训的机会，以及在多学科会议上与其他冲突和灾难学者展示和讨论我的研究的机会。此外，指导和参与关于项目设计和拨款撰写的系列研讨会是培训计划的关键组成部分。我还将为北卡罗来纳大学的研究人员发起一个跨学科工作组，他们目前正在使用基于主体的模型来研究灾害和其他宏观层面事件对世界各地人口动态的影响。该工作组将帮助我本人和其他与会者更好地了解我们在微观和宏观层面变化过程中地理上特定结果的可比性和概括性。这些培训活动的目标是帮助我培养一套独特的技能，使我能够在未来作为一名独立的科学家使用。具体来说，我计划利用这些技能来制定一个R01项目提案，以调查印度克什米尔正在进行的宗教-种族冲突期间的人口动态。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project will investigate the impacts of armed conflict on macro-level population composition, well-being, and stability. Although the actions of macro-level actors in conflict processes, such as governments and non- governmental violent groups, have been examined in the literature, there is little research on the role of the general population and how their behavioral changes during armed conflict affect the long-term well-being and stability of post-conflict societies and contribute to the perpetuation of armed conflict. This gap is largely a result of a lack of appropriate data and clear methodological strategies for the investigation of the micro- and macro-level dynamics of populations exposed to abrupt and dramatic macro-level disasters. The broad aim of this project is to contribute to the general development of theoretical and methodological tools that can be used to investigate the impact of disasters in general on macro-level population composition and well-being. Empirical analysis will focus on armed conflict as one type of disaster that can have immediate and long-term effects on populations. The overarching research questions for this project are: what are the immediate effects of conflict on population composition and dynamics, under what conditions do they persist after conflict ends, and how do the initial conditions of a population moderate these changes? This project will be a detailed case study of these questions in the context of the recent decade-long armed conflict between the Government of Nepal and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). Specifically, this project will address three research questions: (1) how does conflict-related migration affect short and long-term changes in macro-level population composition and dynamics, including rates of migration, marriage, fertility, urbanization, and population growth; (2) how does conflict-related migration affect household composition, well-being and inequality between households in the short- and long-term post-conflict periods; and (3) how does conflict-related migration affect village level population composition and spatial segregation by caste in the short- and long-term post-conflict periods. These questions will be examined using agent-based models and existing data from a longitudinal study in Nepal. As an emerging analytical technique, agent-based models hold immense promise for research investigating the linkages between micro-level behaviors and macro-level outcomes and simulating different disaster scenarios over long periods of time. To my knowledge, they have not yet been used in disaster research. Results from this study will have implications for understanding key macro-level population trends and the well-being of individuals, households, and communities in post-conflict Nepal. The theoretical contributions and modeling tools that are developed for this project will also be applicable to the future study of other conflicts, natural disasters, economic crises or other events of rapid and dramatic social change. This project will draw on my previous research on migration and other demographic behaviors in response to the armed conflict in Nepal and the individual characteristics that moderate the conflict-migration relationship. My current postdoctoral work with an interdisciplinary team using agent-based models to examine the consequences of rapid social and environmental change on population dynamics will also provide experience, tools, and relationships that will help me to complete the proposed project. My primary career goal is to conduct research on the consequences of armed conflict and disasters on population dynamics and human well-being. In this regard, the purpose of this award is to provide me with the opportunity to learn about and become proficient in the use of agent-based models as a technique to link micro-level behaviors to macro-level outcomes in the context of disaster and to learn about the intersections and relevance of my research for other academic disciplines. The Pathway to Independence award will help me to pursue these objectives through providing access to mentorship with leading scientists in several disciplines at the University of North Carolina (UNC), conceptual and methodological training opportunities at UNC and the Santa Fe Institute, and opportunities to present and discuss my research at multidisciplinary conferences with other conflict and disaster scholars. Furthermore, mentorship and participation in a seminar series on project design and grant writing are key components of the training program. I will also initiate an interdisciplinary working group for researchers at UNC who are currently using agent-based models to study the effects of disasters and other macro-level events on population dynamics around the world. This working group will help myself and the other participants to better understand the comparability and generalizability of our geographically specific results on processes of micro- and macro-level change. The goal of these training activities is to help me develop a unique set of skills that I will be able to use as an independent scientist in the future. Specifically I plan to use these skills to develop an R01 project proposal to investigate population dynamics during the on-going religion-ethnic conflict in Kashmir, India.