权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

Selective Migration and the Macro Demographic Consequences of Armed Conflict

选择性移民和武装冲突的宏观人口影响

基本信息

批准号：
8702208
负责人：
Nathalie Elizabeth Williams
金额：
$ 22.68万
依托单位：
UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
2012
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
2012-09-21 至 2016-09-30
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/8702208
关键词：
Address Affect Age Area Attention Award Behavior Behavioral Case Study Castes Characteristics Communities Conflict (Psychology)Contraceptive Usage Data Demographic Impact Development Disasters Discipline Earthquakes Economics Environment Event Event History Analysis Fertility Future Gender General Population Goals Government Grant Household Human Hurricane Immigration India Individual Inequality Institutes Institution Investigation Knowledge Learning Left Link Literature Living Standards Long-Term Effects Longitudinal Studies Marriage Measures Mentorship Modeling Natural Disasters Neighborhoods Nepal North Carolina Outcome Participant Pathway interactions Pattern Personal Satisfaction Population Population Dynamics Population Growth Poverty Process Public Health Refugees Research Research Personnel Role Scientist Series Services Shapes Shock Simulate Social Change Societies Techniques Time Training Training Activity Training Programs Tsunami Universities Urbanization Violence Work Writing arm base behavior change career design environmental change experience human population dynamics innovation interest man migration mortality multidisciplinary response rural area segregation simulation skills social symposium theories tool trend urban area working group

项目摘要

TITLE: Selective Migration and the Macro Demographic Consequences of Armed Conflict PROJECT SUMMARY: This project will investigate the impacts of armed conflict on macro-level population composition, well-being, and stability. Although the actions of macro-level actors in conflict processes, such as governments and non- governmental violent groups, have been examined in the literature, there is little research on the role of the general population and how their behavioral changes during armed conflict affect the long-term well-being and stability of post-conflict societies and contribute to the perpetuation of armed conflict. This gap is largely a result of a lack of appropriate data and clear methodological strategies for the investigation of the micro- and macro-level dynamics of populations exposed to abrupt and dramatic macro-level disasters. The broad aim of this project is to contribute to the general development of theoretical and methodological tools that can be used to investigate the impact of disasters in general on macro-level population composition and well-being. Empirical analysis will focus on armed conflict as one type of disaster that can have immediate and long-term effects on populations. The overarching research questions for this project are: what are the immediate effects of conflict on population composition and dynamics, under what conditions do they persist after conflict ends, and how do the initial conditions of a population moderate these changes? This project will be a detailed case study of these questions in the context of the recent decade-long armed conflict between the Government of Nepal and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist). Specifically, this project will address three research questions: (1) how does conflict-related migration affect short and long-term changes in macro-level population composition and dynamics, including rates of migration, marriage, fertility, urbanization, and population growth; (2) how does conflict-related migration affect household composition, well-being and inequality between households in the short- and long-term post-conflict periods; and (3) how does conflict-related migration affect village level population composition and spatial segregation by caste in the short- and long-term post-conflict periods. These questions will be examined using agent-based models and existing data from a longitudinal study in Nepal. As an emerging analytical technique, agent-based models hold immense promise for research investigating the linkages between micro-level behaviors and macro-level outcomes and simulating different disaster scenarios over long periods of time. To my knowledge, they have not yet been used in disaster research. Results from this study will have implications for understanding key macro-level population trends and the well-being of individuals, households, and communities in post-conflict Nepal. The theoretical contributions and modeling tools that are developed for this project will also be applicable to the future study of other conflicts, natural disasters, economic crises or other events of rapid and dramatic social change. This project will draw on my previous research on migration and other demographic behaviors in response to the armed conflict in Nepal and the individual characteristics that moderate the conflict-migration relationship. My current postdoctoral work with an interdisciplinary team using agent-based models to examine the consequences of rapid social and environmental change on population dynamics will also provide experience, tools, and relationships that will help me to complete the proposed project. My primary career goal is to conduct research on the consequences of armed conflict and disasters on population dynamics and human well-being. In this regard, the purpose of this award is to provide me with the opportunity to learn about and become proficient in the use of agent-based models as a technique to link micro-level behaviors to macro-level outcomes in the context of disaster and to learn about the intersections and relevance of my research for other academic disciplines. The Pathway to Independence award will help me to pursue these objectives through providing access to mentorship with leading scientists in several disciplines at the University of North Carolina (UNC), conceptual and methodological training opportunities at UNC and the Santa Fe Institute, and opportunities to present and discuss my research at multidisciplinary conferences with other conflict and disaster scholars. Furthermore, mentorship and participation in a seminar series on project design and grant writing are key components of the training program. I will also initiate an interdisciplinary working group for researchers at UNC who are currently using agent-based models to study the effects of disasters and other macro-level events on population dynamics around the world. This working group will help myself and the other participants to better understand the comparability and generalizability of our geographically specific results on processes of micro- and macro-level change. The goal of these training activities is to help me develop a unique set of skills that I will be able to use as an independent scientist in the future. Specifically I plan to use these skills to develop an R01 project proposal to investigate population dynamics during the on-going religio-ethnic conflict in Kashmir, India.

标题：选择性移民与武装冲突的宏观人口后果项目总结：该项目将调查武装冲突对宏观人口构成、福祉、和稳定性。尽管政府和非政府组织等宏观行为者在冲突进程中的行动政府暴力组织，已经在文献中被考察过，但很少有关于其作用的研究以及他们在武装冲突期间的行为变化如何影响长期福祉和这将有助于冲突后社会的稳定，并有助于武装冲突的永久化。这一差距在很大程度上是由于缺乏适当的数据和明确的方法战略来调查微观和暴露在突发性和戏剧性宏观灾害中的人口的宏观动态。这个项目的广泛目标是促进理论和技术的全面发展可用于调查灾害对宏观影响的总体影响的方法工具人口构成和福祉。经验分析将侧重于将武装冲突作为一种灾难。这可能会对人口产生直接和长期的影响。这方面的首要研究问题是项目是：冲突对人口构成和动态的直接影响是什么？冲突结束后，这些状况会持续存在吗？人口的初始状况如何缓和这些状况？改变？该项目将在最近十年的背景下对这些问题进行详细的案例研究尼泊尔政府与尼泊尔共产党(毛派)之间的武装冲突。具体地说，这该项目将解决三个研究问题：(1)与冲突有关的移徙如何影响短期和长期宏观人口构成和动态的变化，包括移徙、结婚率、生育率、城市化和人口增长；(2)与冲突有关的移徙如何影响家庭构成，冲突后短期和长期家庭之间的福祉和不平等；以及(3)如何与冲突有关的移徙是否影响村级人口构成和按种姓划分的空间隔离冲突后的短期和长期时期。这些问题将使用基于代理的模型和现有的纵向数据进行检查去尼泊尔留学。作为一种新兴的分析技术，基于主体的模型具有巨大的研究前景研究微观行为和宏观结果之间的联系，并模拟不同的较长时间内的灾难情景。据我所知，它们还没有在灾难中使用研究。这项研究的结果将对理解关键的宏观人口趋势产生影响以及冲突后尼泊尔的个人、家庭和社区的福祉。理论上的为本项目开发的贡献和建模工具也将适用于未来的研究其他冲突、自然灾害、经济危机或其他社会急剧变化的事件。这个项目将借鉴我之前关于移民和其他人口行为的研究对尼泊尔武装冲突的反应和缓和冲突的个人特征--移徙两性关系。我目前在一个跨学科团队中从事博士后工作，使用基于代理的模型来检查快速的社会和环境变化对人口动态的影响也将提供经验、工具和关系，将帮助我完成提议的项目。我的主要职业目标是研究武装冲突和灾难的后果人口动态和人类福祉。在这方面，这个奖项的目的是为我提供有机会了解并熟练使用基于代理的模型作为链接技术从微观层面的行为到宏观层面的结果，在灾难背景下并学习交叉点以及我的研究与其他学科的相关性。独立之路奖将有所帮助我通过提供与几位顶尖科学家的指导来追求这些目标北卡罗来纳大学(UNC)的学科，概念和方法培训机会北卡罗来纳大学和圣达菲研究所，以及在多学科会议上介绍和讨论我的研究的机会与其他冲突和灾难学者举行会议。此外，指导和参与研讨会项目设计和赠款编写系列是培训方案的关键组成部分。我还将发起一项北卡罗来纳大学研究人员的跨学科工作组，他们目前正在使用基于代理的模型来研究灾害和其他宏观事件对世界各地人口动态的影响。这是可行的小组将帮助我自己和其他参与者更好地理解我们在微观和宏观层面变化过程中的具体地理结果。这些培训活动的目标是帮助我发展一套独特的技能，我将能够使用这些技能作为一个独立的科学家在未来。具体地说，我计划使用这些技能来开发一个R01项目关于在印度克什米尔地区持续的宗教-种族冲突中调查人口动态的建议。