Sexual Behavior Trajectories from Adolescence to Adulthood

描述(由申请人提供)：在过去的半个世纪里，性行为和浪漫行为的模式发生了显著的变化。性转变发生得更早，也发生在婚姻之外，一生中性伴侣的数量增加，进入婚姻的时间更晚，或者不是全部。这些行为和态度的改变是在其他发育转变和传统的成年社会学标志被推迟的背景下发生的。在这些戏剧性的人口变化中，嵌入了关于通往健康性行为和生活质量的最佳途径的相互矛盾的信念。尽管公共政策强调的是从禁欲到结婚的途径，但几乎没有关于从青春期到成年的性轨迹的前瞻性记录，也没有关于不同的性途径和浪漫途径对发展和健康的持久影响的信息。使用国家青少年健康纵向研究(Add Health)第一至第四波的数据，该项目将：1)检验由以下因素定义的轨迹：i)时机、性行为的出现和时间间隔；ii)伴侣积累、活动频率和冒险(水平和斜率)；iii)性取向指标随时间的变化；并确定轨迹是否因生物性别、种族/民族或身体残疾而变化；2)测试源自生命历程和其他发展理论的假设，这些假设涉及生物特征、心理因素和生活经历的相互作用如何维持或改变整个生命过程中的性和浪漫轨迹；以及3)确定轨迹的同时和后来的健康关联，并在存在关联的情况下，测试关于中介机制的假设。纵向分析将包括离散风险模型、多重递减生命表分析、用于估计个体特定轨迹的非齐次泊松过程的回归模型、多项Logistic广义线性混合模型、用于按类型聚集轨迹的潜在类增长模型、用于不同行为的排序和开始之间的时间的多变量过渡模型、以及用于捕捉变化过程之间的动态系统交互的双轨迹模型。确定不同文化背景下人们的体验轨迹及其对健康的影响，将丰富关于各种形式的积极发展的发展理论，并将提供基于代表性样本的经验证据，以指导公共卫生政策和计划的制定。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Patterns of sexual and romantic behavior have changed significantly over the past half century. Sexual transition occurs earlier and outside of marriage, lifetime numbers of sexual partners have increased, and entry into marriage occurs later or not all. These behavioral and attitudinal changes have occurred in a context in which other developmental transitions and traditional sociological markers of adulthood are delayed. Embedded in these dramatic population changes are conflicting beliefs about optimal pathways to healthy sexuality and quality of life. Despite public policy emphasis on a pathway defined by abstinence until marriage, there is little prospective documentation of sexual trajectories from adolescence into adulthood or information about the enduring developmental and health implications, if any, of different sexual and romantic pathways. Using data from Waves I - IV of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health), this project will: 1) examine trajectories defined by: I) timing, emergence of sexual acts, and temporal spacing; II) partner accumulation, frequency of activity and risk-taking (level and slope); and III) changes in indicators of sexual orientation over time; and determine whether trajectories vary by biological sex, race/ethnicity, or physical disability; 2) test hypotheses derived from Life Course and other developmental theory about how the interactions of biological characteristics, psychological factors, and life experiences sustain or change sexual and romantic trajectories across the life course; and 3) identify concurrent and later health correlates of trajectories, and where associations exist, test hypotheses about mediating mechanisms. Longitudinal analyses will include discrete hazard models, multiple decrement life table analysis, regression models for nonhomogeneous Poisson process to estimate individual-specific trajectories, multinomial logistic generalized linear mixed models, latent class growth models to cluster trajectories by type, multivariate transition models for sequencing and time between onset of different behaviors, and dual trajectory models to capture dynamic system interactions between change processes. Identifying trajectories of experience and their health implications for persons embedded in different cultural contexts will enrich developmental theory about diverse forms of positive development, and will provide empirical evidence based on representative samples to guide the development of public health policy and programs.