Climate Change Impacts on Power Plant Emissions, Air Quality and Health in the US

描述（由申请人提供）：根据国家和国际评估，气候变化对空气污染的影响在未来的健康问题中排名很高。即使在今天，空气污染仍然是美国主要的公共健康危害，约有7000万美国人生活在细颗粒物（PM2.5）空气质量超过标准的地区，估计有1.2亿人居住在超过8小时臭氧（O3）标准的县。气候对空气质量的影响有充分的记录，尤其是臭氧，一种随着温度升高而增加的二次污染物。然而，关于气候变化对更危险的污染物PM2.5的大气影响，还不太确定。考虑到PM2.5的主要来源是化石燃料的燃烧，人们认为，夏季变热导致用电量增加，导致空气污染排放增加。然而，到目前为止，这种潜在的重要贡献还没有被量化。因此，我们建议根据美国预测的气候情景，通过确定和绘制未来发电厂排放的地图，来加强气候变化的空气污染研究。我们将研究已经面临一系列空气污染健康风险的美国东部，以及该国人口最多的地区。我们的总体目标是利用耦合模型方法来确定最容易受到气候变化带来的空气污染相关健康风险的人群。我们建议通过三个具体目标来实现这一目标：1)模拟气候变化（单独）对当前和未来气候（例如2050年代）美国东部空气质量的大气影响，假设IPCC的排放情况一切照旧；2)模拟气候变化对夏季电力需求的影响，确定电厂的空间显式排放；3)对美国东部最容易受到气候变化驱动的空气污染影响的人群进行地理定位和量化风险。这些人口将根据预测的气候对空气质量的影响（目标1）产生的空气污染暴露情景来确定，并根据预测的变暖世界中电力需求产生的空气污染排放（目标2）来确定。通过纳入解决气候/电力/PM2.5联系的研究部分，我们将首次量化气候变化、空气质量、社会适应（通过空调需求）和公共卫生之间的关系。对于人口脆弱性分析（目标3），我们利用环境效益测绘和分析计划（BenMAP），该计划使用浓度响应和经济评估函数来模拟空气污染相关的健康结果。我们的方法可以应用于任何空间尺度，并可在已知电厂位置和特征的任何地区或国家进行气候/空气质量建模。因此，这项研究可以提供一个适用于工业化世界多个人群的气候变化健康风险评估的建模框架。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): Air pollution effects from climate change rank high among future health concerns, according to national and international assessments. Even today, air pollution persists as a major public health hazard in the US, where approximately 70 million Americans live in areas exceeding air quality standards for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and an estimated 120 million reside in counties exceeding 8-hour ozone (O3) standards. Climatic effects on air quality are well documented, especially for O3, a secondary pollutant that increases with warmer temperatures. Yet there exists less certainty regarding climate change's atmospheric effects on PM2.5, the more hazardous pollutant. Given that the key source of PM2.5 is fossil fuel combustion, an increase in air pollution emissions from higher electricity usage associated with hotter summers has been posited. However, to date, this potentially important contribution has not been quantified. We, therefore, propose to augment air pollution studies of climate change by determining and mapping future power plant emissions in response to projected climate scenarios for the US. We will study the Eastern US, already facing a range of air pollution health risks, and the most highly populated region of the country. Our overarching goal is to utilize a coupled model approach to determine populations most exposed to air pollution-related health risks from climate change. We propose to achieve this goal through three Specific Aims: 1) To model the atmospheric effects of climate change (alone) on air quality over the Eastern US for current and future climates (e.g. 2050s), assuming a business-as-usual emissions scenario of the IPCC; 2) To model climate change impacts on the demand for electricity during summer seasons and determine spatially explicit emissions from electric power plants; and 3) To geographically locate and quantify risks for populations in the Eastern US most vulnerable to climate change-driven air pollution. These populations will be determined based on the air pollution exposure scenarios generated by the outputs from projected climate effects on air quality (Aims 1), augmented by projected air pollution emissions from electric power demands in a warmer world (Aim 2). By including a research component addressing climate/electricity/PM2.5 linkages, we will quantify for the first time, the relationship between climate change, air quality, societal adaptation (via air conditioning demand) and public health. For the population vulnerability analysis (Aim 3), we utilize the Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), which uses concentration-response and economic valuation functions to model air pollution-related health outcomes. Our approach can be applied across any spatial scale and be customized for climate/air quality modeling in any region or country where power plant location and characteristics are known. This study can thus provide a modeling framework applicable to health risk assessment of climate change across multiple populations of the industrialized world.