Developing Dynamic Forecasting Intervention Models for Upper Elementary Students

描述（由申请人提供）：拟议的研究有几个具体的，相互关联的目标：(1)仔细检查4 -5年级儿童接受的课堂教学的性质和可变性；(2)调查四年级至五年级儿童的语言和读写能力发展，包括理解策略的发展和推理在阅读叙事和说明性文本中的应用；这包括使用眼动追踪方法的阅读理解策略；(3)考察四、五年级教学对儿童语言和读写能力发展的贡献。这包括检查特定教学策略的效果是否取决于儿童的语言和读写能力。也就是说，是否有儿童特征的指令（儿童X指令）的相互作用？(4)建立考虑儿童X教学互动的四、五年级学生动态预测干预模型。动态预测干预模型使用多层模型，根据儿童的语言和读写技能，为他们预测最佳的教学模式（即，导致更大的阅读技能增长）。本研究的目的是在调查一年级至三年级个性化读写教学对学生读写能力发展影响的研究基础上进行扩展。在一年级的两项研究表明，接受个性化教学的儿童，使用动态预测干预模型，比对照组的儿童表现出更大的阅读技能增长。在本次研究中，目前正在参加三年级学习并已完成一年级和二年级学习的学生（n = 225）及其同学将被跟踪到四年级和五年级（预计总n = 550名学生，8所学校的30个四年级和五年级教室）。他们的语言和读写能力将在秋季和春季进行评估。课堂教学将被观察，录像，并为每个孩子编码晚秋，冬季和早春。眼球追踪方法将用于更仔细地检查儿童对阅读策略的使用。这项研究的数据将允许对儿童的识字技能发展进行仔细的检查，包括确定识字的关键组成部分之间复杂和交易的联系，这些联系可能对特定类型的教学作出反应。将使用多层层次线性模型，包括交叉分类随机效应模型进行分析。通过解释可量化的，尽管复杂的，儿童评估的语言和读写能力与所提供的教学数量和类型之间的联系，动态预测干预模型可能对增进对儿童如何学习复杂的多维认知任务（如阅读）以及从一年级到五年级的教学在促进这种学习中的关键作用的理解具有重要意义。从长远来看，这些结果有可能指导小学高年级更有效的识字教学的设计和实施。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): The proposed study has several specific, interrelated aims: (1) To closely examine the nature and variability of the classroom instruction 4th-5th grade children receive; (2) To investigate children's language and literacy development from 4th grade through the end of 5th grade including development of comprehension strategies and use of inferences in reading narrative and expository text; this includes the use of reading comprehension strategies using eye-tracking methodology; (3) To examine the contribution of 4th and 5th grade instruction to children's language and literacy development. This includes examining whether the effect of specific instructional strategies depends on individual children's language and literacy skills. That is, are there child characteristic by instruction (child X instruction) interactions? and (4) To develop dynamic forecasting intervention models for 4th and 5th grade students, which take into account child X instruction interactions. Dynamic forecasting intervention models use multilevel models to predict optimal patterns of instruction (i.e., that lead to greater reading skill growth) for individual children based on their language and literacy skills. The study aims will be met by building on and extending research that investigates the effect of individualized literacy instruction from 1st through 3rd grade on students' literacy development. Two studies in 1st grade reveal that children, who received individualized instruction, using dynamic forecasting intervention models, demonstrated greater reading skill growth than did children in control classrooms. For the proposed study, students who are currently participating in the 3rd grade study and who have completed the 1st and 2nd grade study (n = 225), and their classmates, will be followed into 4th and 5th grade (total anticipated n = 550 students, 30 4th and 5th grade classrooms in 8 schools). Their language and literacy skills will be assessed in the fall and spring. Classroom instruction will be observed, video-taped, and coded for each child late fall, winter, and early spring. Eye-tracking methods will be used to examine more closely children's use of reading strategies. Data from this study will permit the close examination of children's literacy skill development - including identifying the complex and transactional associations among key components of literacy that may respond to particular types of instruction. Multilevel hierarchical linear modeling, including cross-classified random effects models, will be used to conduct the analyses. By explicating quantifiable, albeit complex, links between children's assessed language and literacy skills and amounts and types of instruction to be provided, dynamic forecasting intervention models may have important implications for increasing understanding of how children learn complex multidimensional cognitive tasks (such as reading) and the critical role of instruction from first through fifth grade in facilitating this learning. Long term, these results have the potential of guiding the design and implementation of more effective literacy instruction in the upper elementary grades. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: Proficient literacy skills are critical in today's information driven world and yet two-thirds of children fail to achieve proficient reading skills during elementary school. By understanding how 4th and 5th grade classroom instruction, across the content areas, affects children's literacy development, we can develop dynamic forecasting models of proficient reading that can be used to design and implement more effective instruction for 4th and 5th graders.