Fertility After a Large-Scale Disaster

描述（由申请人提供）：本申请寻求资助，以研究2004年印度洋海啸这一近期大规模灾难后的人口变化。我们的目的是阐明的时间，速度和生育率的决定因素，在印度尼西亚社区暴露于连续的破坏。为此，我们从2004年至2010年期间在印度尼西亚两个省的500多个社区收集的一组非常不寻常的数据——海啸善后与恢复研究（STAR）。这项研究包括印度尼西亚被完全摧毁的地区以及没有受到海啸影响的社区。因此，这些数据支持了研究灾难影响的治疗-控制设计。由于基线调查是在2004年进行的，因此该调查具有灾前人口的代表性，并且对灾前调查对象（N~40,000）了解较多。从海啸发生5个月后开始收集这些受访者及其家庭、社区和服务提供者的数据。在会议结束后的五年内，大约每年进行一次重新访谈。我们的目标是通过比较严重受损和未受损地区的总生育率的时间趋势来捕捉生育率对灾害反应的时间和演变。然后，我们开发了一系列多层次的风险模型，研究灾后生育的时间如何对灾前属性、灾害暴露和生育前因（如避孕药具的可用性和经济稳定性）的时间变化做出反应。在灾难发生前对受访者的测量提供了一种将观察到的生育率变化因果地归因于灾难所改变的机制的手段。拟议的研究既有助于我们对印度尼西亚灾后环境的理解，也为有关人口对人口创伤的反应的更大问题提供了理论见解。特别重要的是，我们有能力评估为什么生育率会在灾难的背景下发生变化——这是一项欠发达的调查，对改善恢复政策和解释现代生育率趋势具有明确的影响。

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This application seeks funding to examine demographic change after a recent large-scale disaster, the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. We aim to elucidate the timing, pace, and determinants of fertility in Indonesian communities that were exposed to a continuum of destruction. To do so, we draw from a highly unusual data set - the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR) - collected during 2004-2010 in over 500 communities from two provinces of Indonesia. The study includes regions of Indonesia that were completely destroyed as well as communities that were not exposed to the tsunami. The data thus support a treatment-control design to study the disaster's effects. Because the baseline survey was conducted in 2004, the survey is representative of population before the disaster, and much is known about the survey respondents before the event (N~40,000). Data on these respondents, their families, their communities, and their service providers were collected beginning five months after the tsunami. Re- interview occurred approximately annually for five years after the event. We aim to capture the timing and the evolution of a fertility response to the disaster by comparing temporal trends in aggregate fertility in the heavily damaged and undamaged regions. We then develop a series of multilevel hazard models that examine how the timing of post-disaster fertility responded to pre-disaster attributes, disaster exposure, and temporal shifts in fertility antecedents - such as contraceptive availability and economic stability - in the wake of the event. Measurement of respondents prior to the disaster provides a means of causally attributing observed fertility changes to mechanisms shifted by the disaster. The proposed research both informs our understanding of the post-disaster environment in Indonesia and provides theoretical insights for larger questions regarding demographic response to population trauma. Of particular importance is our ability to assess why fertility changes in the context of disaster - an underdeveloped line of inquiry with clear implications for improving recovery policy and interpreting modern fertility trends. PUBLIC HEALTH RELEVANCE: The proposed research is part of an ongoing effort to understand the demographic consequences of population trauma. We will examine the timing, pace, and determinants of fertility change following a recent large-scale disaster - the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. We seek to analyze data on fertility and its antecedents in Indonesian communities from the Survey of Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery, which was fielded before and after the disaster in regions spanning a continuum of destruction.